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Nonlinearities and the Business Cycle in Spanish Imports: A Smooth Transition Regression Approach

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  • Estefanía Mourelle
  • José Cancelo

Abstract

Traditional specifications about imports have their foundations on the symmetry of the cycle. However, the wide debate about the asymmetric character of the cycle has aroused much interest in nonlinear dynamics due to the cyclical state of the economy. Economic theory maintains a linear long-run relationship linking imports, GDP and relative prices. This paper analyzes whether short-run deviations from this equilibrium display any kind of nonlinear behavior related to the state of the cycle. Nonlinearities will be captured by an error correction smooth transition regression (STR). Empirical evidence, focused on Spanish imports of goods, supports that short-run deviations of this variable from its linear equilibrium state display a nonlinear behavior. As it is demonstrated, this evolution is caused by the cyclical state of the economy. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Estefanía Mourelle & José Cancelo, 2009. "Nonlinearities and the Business Cycle in Spanish Imports: A Smooth Transition Regression Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 15(2), pages 245-259, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:15:y:2009:i:2:p:245-259:10.1007/s11294-008-9193-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-008-9193-4
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear behavior; Smooth transition models; Imports; Business cycle; C32; E32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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