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Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK

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Author Info
Michael Arghyrou
Christopher Martin ()
Costas Milas

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Abstract

This paper estimates a variety of models of inflation using quarterly data for the UK between 1965 and 2001. We find strong evidence that the persistence of inflation is nonlinear and that inflation adjusted more rapidly in periods of macroeconomic stress such as the mid-1970s, the early 1980s and the late 1980s-early 1990s. Our results imply that inflation will respond more strongly and more rapidly to changes in interest rates when the price level is further away from the steady state level. This has implications for optimal monetary policy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Economics and Finance Discussion Papers with number 03-03.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:bru:bruedp:03-03

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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  2. John Bennett & Manfredi M. A. La Manna, 2001. "Reversing the Keynesian Asymmetry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1556-1563, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jansen, Eilev S & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 735-63, November.
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  17. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2002. "The Exchange Rate and Inflation in the UK," Discussion Papers 11, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Alvaro Escribano & Clive W.J. Granger, 1996. "Investigating the Relationship between Gold and Silver Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-38, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  20. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Holly, Sean & Turner, Paul, 2001. "Asymmetric Adjustment Costs, Asymmetric Pricing and Employment: Evidence from the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(1), pages 69-81, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Costas Milas, 2007. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/07, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Modelling UK Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality and Monetary Policy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 46, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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