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Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK

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  • Michael Arghyrou
  • Christopher Martin

    ()

  • Costas Milas

Abstract

This paper estimates a variety of models of inflation using quarterly data for the UK between 1965 and 2001. We find strong evidence that the persistence of inflation is nonlinear and that inflation adjusted more rapidly in periods of macroeconomic stress such as the mid-1970s, the early 1980s and the late 1980s-early 1990s. Our results imply that inflation will respond more strongly and more rapidly to changes in interest rates when the price level is further away from the steady state level. This has implications for optimal monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Economics and Finance Discussion Papers with number 03-03.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bru:bruedp:03-03

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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Cited by:
  1. Costas Milas, 2007. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Working Paper Series 25-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  2. Zhang, Lingxiang, 2013. "Modeling China's inflation dynamics: An MRSTAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 440-446.
  3. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
  4. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Modeling the behaviour of inflation deviations from the target," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 90-95, January.

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