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Risk spillovers in oil-related CDS, stock and credit markets

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  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  • Liu, Tengdong
  • Chang, Chia-Lin
  • McAleer, Michael

Abstract

This paper examines risk transmission and migration among six US measures of credit and market risk during the full period 2004–2011 period and the 2009–2011 recovery subperiod, with a focus on four sectors related to the highly volatile oil price. There are more long-run equilibrium risk relationships and short-run causal relationships among the four oil-related Credit Default Swaps (CDS) indexes, the (expected equity volatility) VIX index and the (swaption expected volatility) SMOVE index for the full period than for the recovery subperiod. The auto sector CDS spread is the most error-correcting in the long run and also leads in the risk discovery process in the short run. On the other hand, the CDS spread of the highly regulated, natural monopoly utility sector does not error correct. The four oil-related CDS spread indexes are responsive to VIX in the short- and long-run, while no index is sensitive to SMOVE which, in turn, unilaterally assembles risk migration from VIX. The 2007–2008 Great Recession seems to have led to “localization” and less migration of credit and market risk in the oil-related sectors.

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  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Liu, Tengdong & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Risk spillovers in oil-related CDS, stock and credit markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 526-535.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:526-535
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.10.010
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    4. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Ten Things you should know about DCC," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-048/III, Tinbergen Institute.
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    9. Mensi, Walid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hkiri, Besma & Hamed Al Yahyaee, Khamis, 2019. "Long-run relationships between US financial credit markets and risk factors: Evidence from the quantile ARDL approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 101-110.
    10. Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Galariotis, Emilios & Spyrou, Spyros, 2017. "Contagion, volatility persistence and volatility spill-overs: The case of energy markets during the European financial crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 217-227.
    11. Pavlova, Ivelina & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Parhizgari, Ali M., 2018. "A dynamic spillover analysis of crude oil effects on the sovereign credit risk of exporting countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 10-22.
    12. Guesmi, Khaled & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Goutte, Stéphane & Abid, Ilyes, 2018. "On the determinants of industry-CDS index spreads: Evidence from a nonlinear setting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-254.
    13. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2023. "Systemwide directional connectedness from Crude Oil to sovereign credit risk," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    14. Blumenstock, Hendrik & von Grone, Udo & Mehlhorn, Marc & Merkl, Johannes & Pietz, Marcus, 2012. "Einflussfaktoren von CDS-Spreads als Maß für das aktuelle Bonitätsrisiko: Liefert das Rating eine Erklärung?," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-03, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.
    15. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Spillover effects in oil-related CDS markets during and after the sub-prime crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Yang, Lu & Yang, Lei & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "Determinants of dependence structures of sovereign credit default swap spreads between G7 and BRICS countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 19-34.
    17. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-545 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Yihong Ma, Simon Cottrell, Sarath Delpachitra, Xiao Yu, Ping Jiang, and Quan Tran Ha Minh, 2023. "What Drives Credit Spreads of Oil Companies? Evidence from the Upstream, Integrated and Downstream Industries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    19. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.
    20. Depren, Özer & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Kılıç Depren, Serpil, 2021. "Changes of gold prices in COVID-19 pandemic: Daily evidence from Turkey's monetary policy measures with selected determinants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    21. Karol Szafranek & Marek Kwas & Grzegorz Szafrański & Zuzanna Wośko, 2020. "Common Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia in the North American Oil and Gas Industry. A Panel BMA Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-23, November.
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    23. Peri, M. & Vandone, D. & Baldi, L., 2015. "Volatility Spillover between Water, Food and Energy," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212627, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    24. Massimo Peri & Daniela Vandone & Lucia Baldi, 2017. "Volatility Spillover between Water, Energy and Food," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk; Sectoral CDS; VIX; SMOVE; MOVE; Adjustments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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