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Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: the Case of EU Countries

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We provide a first attempt to include off-balance sheet, implicit insurance to SIFIs into a consistent assessment of fiscal sustainability, for 27 countries of the European Union. We first calculate tax gaps à la Blanchard (1990) and Blanchard et al. (1990). We then introduce two alternative measures of implicit off-balance sheet liabilities related to the risk of a systemic bank crisis. The first one relies of microeconomic data at the bank level. The second one relies on econometric estimations of the probability and the cost of a systemic banking crisis, based on historical data. The former approach provides an upper evaluation of the fiscal cost of systemic banking crises, whereas the latter one provides a lower one. Hence, we believe that the combined use of these two methodologies helps to gauge the range of fiscal risk.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2012/12077.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 12077.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12077

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Keywords: Fiscal sustainability; tax gap; systemic banking risk; off-balance sheet liabilities.;

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  1. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2013. "The Design of Fiscal Adjustments," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 27, pages 19-67 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & D'Apice, Vincenzo & Ferri, Giovanni & Puopolo, Giovanni Walter, 2010. "Macro Financial Determinants of the Great Financial Crisis: Implications for Financial Regulation," MPRA Paper 26088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
  7. Viral V. Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? - Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," NBER Working Papers 17136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bohn, H., 1990. "The Sutainability Of Budget Deficits In A Stochastic Economy," Weiss Center Working Papers 6-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  9. Marc Quintyn & David S. Hoelscher, 2003. "Managing Systemic Banking Crises," IMF Occasional Papers 224, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Hana Polackova, 1998. "Contingent Liabilities : A Threat to Fiscal Stability," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11522, The World Bank.
  12. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June.
  13. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Mikhail Stolbov, 2014. "How Are Interbank and Sovereign Debt Markets Linked? Evidence from 14 OECD Countries, the Euro Area and Russia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(3), pages 331-348, June.

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