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Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: the Case of EU Countries

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We provide a first attempt to include off-balance sheet, implicit insurance to SIFIs into a consistent assessment of fiscal sustainability, for 27 countries of the European Union. We first calculate tax gaps à la Blanchard (1990) and Blanchard et al. (1990). We then introduce two alternative measures of implicit off-balance sheet liabilities related to the risk of a systemic bank crisis. The first one relies of microeconomic data at the bank level. The second one relies on econometric estimations of the probability and the cost of a systemic banking crisis, based on historical data. The former approach provides an upper evaluation of the fiscal cost of systemic banking crises, whereas the latter one provides a lower one. Hence, we believe that the combined use of these two methodologies helps to gauge the range of fiscal risk.

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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 12077.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12077

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Keywords: Fiscal sustainability; tax gap; systemic banking risk; off-balance sheet liabilities.;

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  2. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2013. "The Design of Fiscal Adjustments," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 27, pages 19-67 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June.
  4. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
  6. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
  8. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  9. Hana Polackova, 1998. "Contingent Liabilities : A Threat to Fiscal Stability," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11522, The World Bank.
  10. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & D'Apice, Vincenzo & Ferri, Giovanni & Puopolo, Giovanni Walter, 2010. "Macro Financial Determinants of the Great Financial Crisis: Implications for Financial Regulation," MPRA Paper 26088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Marc Quintyn & David S. Hoelscher, 2003. "Managing Systemic Banking Crises," IMF Occasional Papers 224, International Monetary Fund.
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