Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: the Case of EU Countries
AbstractWe provide a first attempt to include off-balance sheet, implicit insurance to SIFIs into a consistent assessment of fiscal sustainability, for 27 countries of the European Union. We first calculate tax gaps à la Blanchard (1990) and Blanchard et al. (1990). We then introduce two alternative measures of implicit off-balance sheet liabilities related to the risk of a systemic bank crisis. The first one relies of microeconomic data at the bank level. The second one relies on econometric estimations of the probability and the cost of a systemic banking crisis, based on historical data. The former approach provides an upper evaluation of the fiscal cost of systemic banking crises, whereas the latter one provides a lower one. Hence, we believe that the combined use of these two methodologies helps to gauge the range of fiscal risk.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 12077.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
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Fiscal sustainability; tax gap; systemic banking risk; off-balance sheet liabilities.;
Other versions of this item:
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Guillaume Roussellet, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks : the Case of EU Countries," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00755705, HAL.
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Guillaume Roussellet, 2012. "Fiscal sustainability in the presence of systemic banks: the case of EU countries," Working Papers 2012-05, CEPII research center.
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Guillaume Roussellet, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: the Case of EU Countries," Working Papers hal-00962455, HAL.
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Guillaume Roussellet, 2014. "Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: the Case of EU countries," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00825256, HAL.
- Bénassy-quéré, A. & Roussellet, A., 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: the Case of EU Countries," Working papers 428, Banque de France.
- Agnes Benassy-Quere & Guillaume Roussellet, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: The Case of EU Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3975, CESifo Group Munich.
- H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
- H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ACC-2012-12-06 (Accounting & Auditing)
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-12-06 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2012-12-06 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2012-12-06 (European Economics)
- NEP-PBE-2012-12-06 (Public Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2012-12-06 (Risk Management)
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