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The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle

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  • Dufrénot, Gilles
  • Malik, Sheheryar

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price dynamics and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point detection. Focusing on three countries, the US, UK and Spain, we furthermore provide evidence that although potentially informative from an overall perspective in business cycle modelling, the significance of signals contained in house prices may not be symmetric across the identified high growth and low growth states. In addition, we suggest a possible range of values for house price deflation which may trigger a recession the following period.

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  • Dufrénot, Gilles & Malik, Sheheryar, 2012. "The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1960-1967.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:5:p:1960-1967
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.029
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    Cited by:

    1. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "A century of gaps: Untangling business cycles from secular trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2020. "The Housing Cycle: What Role for Mortgage Market Development and Housing Finance?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 607-670, November.
    3. Jan R. Kim & Keunsuk Chung, 2016. "House prices and business cycles: The case of the UK," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 131-146, June.
    4. Ozdemir Dicle, 2020. "Time-Varying Housing Market Fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(2), pages 89-99, June.
    5. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 25-36.
    6. Agnello Luca & Castro Vitor & Dufrénot Gilles & Jawadi Fredj & Sousa Ricardo M., 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy reaction functions: evidence from the US," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-18, September.
    7. Sala-Ríos, Mercé & Farré-Perdiguer, Mariona & Torres-Solé, Teresa, 2018. "How do Housing Prices and Business Cycles Interact in Spain? An Empirical Analysis/¿Cómo interactúan los precios de la vivienda y el ciclo económico en España? Un análisis empírico," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 897-920, Septiembr.
    8. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Regime switching and the responsiveness of prices to supply: The case of the Irish housing market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 82-94.
    9. Zare, Roohollah, 2016. "House Price Rigidity and the Asymmetric Response of Housing Prices to Monetary Policy in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 11(4), pages 401-417, October.
    10. Tsai, I-Chun, 2013. "The asymmetric impacts of monetary policy on housing prices: A viewpoint of housing price rigidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 405-413.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Leading indicators; Housing; Markov switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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