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A hidden Markov regime-switching model for option valuation

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  • Liew, Chuin Ching
  • Siu, Tak Kuen

Abstract

We investigate two approaches, namely, the Esscher transform and the extended Girsanov's principle, for option valuation in a discrete-time hidden Markov regime-switching Gaussian model. The model's parameters including the interest rate, the appreciation rate and the volatility of a risky asset are governed by a discrete-time, finite-state, hidden Markov chain whose states represent the hidden states of an economy. We give a recursive filter for the hidden Markov chain and estimates of model parameters using a filter-based EM algorithm. We also derive predictors for the hidden Markov chain and some related quantities. These quantities are used to estimate the price of a standard European call option. Numerical examples based on real financial data are provided to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.

Volume (Year): 47 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 374-384

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Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:47:y:2010:i:3:p:374-384

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554

Related research

Keywords: Option pricing Regime-switching Hidden Markov model Esscher transform Extended Girsanov principle Filters and predictors;

References

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  1. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
  2. Siu, Tak Kuen, 2008. "A game theoretic approach to option valuation under Markovian regime-switching models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1146-1158, June.
  3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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  7. Robert J. Elliott & Leunglung Chan & Tak Kuen Siu, 2005. "Option pricing and Esscher transform under regime switching," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 423-432, October.
  8. Elliott, Robert J. & Hunter, William C. & Jamieson, Barbara M., 1998. "Drift and volatility estimation in discrete time," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 209-218, February.
  9. Siu, Tak Kuen, 2005. "Fair valuation of participating policies with surrender options and regime switching," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 533-552, December.
  10. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32.
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  12. Badescu, Alex & Elliott, Robert J. & Siu, Tak Kuen, 2009. "Esscher transforms and consumption-based models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 337-347, December.
  13. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
  14. Naik, Vasanttilak, 1993. " Option Valuation and Hedging Strategies with Jumps in the Volatility of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1969-84, December.
  15. Marc J. Goovaerts & Rob Kaas & Roger J.A. Laeven & Qihe Tang, 2004. "A Comonotonic Image of Independence for Additive Risk Measures," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-030/4, Tinbergen Institute.
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