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The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion

Author

Listed:
  • Li, You
  • Tay, Anthony

Abstract

We explore empirically the role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts, and in explaining individual forecaster uncertainty (defined as the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters in their density forecasts). We focus on US real output growth and inflation, using data from the Philadelphia Fed's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), 1992-2016. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to macroeconomic uncertainty, especially in longer horizon forecasts, but not policy or forecaster uncertainty. There is also little evidence that forecaster uncertainty reflects macroeconomic or policy uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, You & Tay, Anthony, 2021. "The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:67:y:2021:i:c:s0164070420301907
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103266
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Surveys of professional forecasts; Density forecasts; Forecast dispersion; Macroeconomic uncertainty; Policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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