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Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage

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  • Glas, Alexander

Abstract

We analyze the relationship between forecaster disagreement and macroeconomic uncertainty in the Euro area using data from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1999Q1–2018Q4 and find that disagreement is generally a poor proxy for uncertainty. However, the strength of this link varies with the dispersion statistic employed, the choice of either the point forecasts or the histogram means for calculating disagreement, the outcome variable considered and the forecast horizon. In contrast, distributional assumptions do not appear to be very influential. The relationship is weaker in subsamples before and after the outbreak of the Great Recession. Accounting for the forecasters’ entry to and exit from the survey has little impact on the results. We also show that survey-based uncertainty is associated with overall policy uncertainty, whereas forecaster disagreement is related more closely to the expected fluctuations on financial markets.

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  • Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:2:p:607-627
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.07.010
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    Cited by:

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    3. Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023. "Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 01/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    4. Fernandes, Cecilia Melo, 2021. "ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2582, European Central Bank.
    5. Petar Soric & Oscar Claveria, 2021. ""Employment uncertainty a year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic"," IREA Working Papers 202112, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2021.
    6. Kaido Kepp & Kadri Männasoo, 2021. "Investment irreversibility and cyclical adversity: Implications for the financial performance of European manufacturing companies," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1665-1678, October.
    7. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Expectation Formation and the Phillips Curve Revisited," MPRA Paper 119478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Heterogeneity of beliefs and information rigidity in the crude oil market: Evidence from survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Alexander Glas & Matthias Hartmann, 2022. "Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 979-1022, July.
    10. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.
    11. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2021. "Conditional macroeconomic forecasts: Disagreement, revisions and forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Survey-Based Economic Uncertainty Indicators Between Different Agents and Across Variables," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, April.
    13. Claveria, Oscar, 2022. "Global economic uncertainty and suicide: Worldwide evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    14. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2023. "Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10646, CESifo.
    15. Huang, Rong & Pilbeam, Keith & Pouliot, William, 2022. "Are macroeconomic forecasters optimists or pessimists? A reassessment of survey based forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 706-724.
    16. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.

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