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The Relationships among Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts

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Author Info

  • Robert Rich

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Joseph Tracy

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract

This paper examines matched point and density forecasts of inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to analyze the relationships among expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty. We undertake the empirical analysis within a seemingly unrelated regression framework and derive measures of uncertainty using a decomposition proposed by Wallis (2004, 2005) and by drawing on the concept of entropy. The results offer little evidence that disagreement is a useful proxy for uncertainty and mixed evidence that increases in expected inflation are accompanied by heightened uncertainty. Conversely, we document a quantitatively and statistically significant positive association between disagreement and expected inflation. © 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/rest.2009.11167
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 92 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 200-207

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:92:y:2010:i:1:p:200-207

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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

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Cited by:
  1. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," Working Papers hal-00952951, HAL.
  2. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon Potter & Robert Rich & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2010. "Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug/Sep).
  3. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2011. "How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3671, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2011. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: A proposal for robust measurement," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 111, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  5. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.

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