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Fundamental Disagreement: How Much and Why?

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Abstract

Everyone disagrees, even professional forecasters, especially about big economic questions. Has potential output growth changed since the financial crisis? Are we bound for a period of “secular stagnation”? Will the European economy rebound? When is inflation getting back to mandate-consistent level? In this post, we document to what degree professional forecasters disagree and discuss potential reasons why. In a recent working paper, we document a set of novel facts about disagreement among professional forecasters over the last thirty years. We focus on the “trinity” of U.S. output growth, inflation, and the policy rate for different forecast horizons with particular emphasis on the very long run.

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  • Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi, 2016. "Fundamental Disagreement: How Much and Why?," Liberty Street Economics 20160113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:87089
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    Keywords

    Disagreement; Survey Forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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