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Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices

Author

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  • Stanislav Radchenko

    (Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte)

Abstract

This paper proposes a method of distinguishing between the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and oil inventories on the US gasoline prices. I show that gasoline price adjustments are faster and stronger for anticipated changes in oil prices and inventory levels than for unanticipated changes. The dynamics of the gasoline price response depends on the relative importance of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and oil inventories in the model. In all versions of the adjustment model, the response of gasoline prices to unanticipated oil price changes is lagged and incomplete. In versions of the model where anticipated oil price changes are relatively important, the response of gasoline prices to anticipated changes in oil prices is immediate and large. As anticipated oil price changes become less important, the response of gasoline prices to anticipated oil price changes becomes muted and delayed.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices," Microeconomics 0406001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0406001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 39
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    Cited by:

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    3. Radchenko, Stanislav & Tsurumi, Hiroki, 2006. "Limited information Bayesian analysis of a simultaneous equation with an autocorrelated error term and its application to the U.S. gasoline market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 31-49, July.
    4. Michael Noel, 2009. "Do retail gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to cost shocks? The influence of Edgeworth Cycles," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 40(3), pages 582-595, September.
    5. Tuan Van Nguyen, 2013. "The stable relationship between crude oil price and petrol price: Evidence from multivariate GARCH model," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(2), pages 27-40., June.
    6. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Solar Australia," MPRA Paper 71201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "A Model of Sustainable Growth with Renewables( Wind, CS, Algae) in Africa Europe Relation," MPRA Paper 74515, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gasoline price response; anticipated price changes; oil inventory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L7 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction

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