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Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices

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Author Info
Stanislav Radchenko (Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte)

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Abstract

This paper proposes a method of distinguishing between the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and oil inventories on the US gasoline prices. I show that gasoline price adjustments are faster and stronger for anticipated changes in oil prices and inventory levels than for unanticipated changes. The dynamics of the gasoline price response depends on the relative importance of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and oil inventories in the model. In all versions of the adjustment model, the response of gasoline prices to unanticipated oil price changes is lagged and incomplete. In versions of the model where anticipated oil price changes are relatively important, the response of gasoline prices to anticipated changes in oil prices is immediate and large. As anticipated oil price changes become less important, the response of gasoline prices to anticipated oil price changes becomes muted and delayed.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Microeconomics with number 0406001.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0406001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 39
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: gasoline price response; anticipated price changes; oil inventory;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
L7 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sam Peltzman, 2000. "Prices Rise Faster than They Fall," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 466-502, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Galeotti, Marzio & Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2003. "Rockets and feathers revisited: an international comparison on European gasoline markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 175-190, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Inventories and the short-run dynamics of commodity prices," Working papers 3133-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil," Econometrics 0406001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bacon, Robert W., 1991. "Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of UK retail gasoline prices to cost changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-218, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine Yücel, 1998. "Crude oil and gasoline prices: an asymmetric relationship?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  7. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
  8. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Severin Borenstein & Andrea Shepard, 1996. "Sticky Prices, Inventories, and Market Power in Wholesale Gasoline Markets," NBER Working Papers 5468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Godby, Rob & Lintner, Anastasia M. & Stengos, Thanasis & Wandschneider, Bo, 2000. "Testing for asymmetric pricing in the Canadian retail gasoline market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 349-368, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine Yücel, 1999. "Oil price shocks and the U.S. economy: where does the asymmetry originate?," Working Papers 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 1-30.
  14. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 185-204. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Borenstein, Severin & Cameron, A Colin & Gilbert, Richard, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 305-39, February.
    Other versions:
  16. Reilly, Barry & Witt, Robert, 1998. "Petrol price asymmetries revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases," Industrial Organization 0408001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Limited Information Bayesian Analysis of a Simultaneous Equation with an Autocorrelated Error Term and its Application to the U.S. Gasoline Market," Econometrics 0408001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Noel, 2007. "Do Gasoline Prices Resond Asymmetrically to Cost Shocks? The Confounding Effect of Edgeworth Cycles," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2007-04, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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