Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?
AbstractWe consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We find evidence against the conventional wisdom that recessions are more violent than expansions: while some part of the downturn in economic activity that characterises recessionary periods can be attributed to dramatic changes in the price of oil, post-War US economic growth is characterized by the steepness of expansions.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Note: Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: September 2001
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- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
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