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Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?

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Author Info

  • Hans-Martin Krolzig

    ()
    (Oxford University, Department of Economics, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ and Nuffield College)

  • Michael P. Clements

    ()
    (University of Warwick, Dept. of Economics, CV4 7AL Coventry, U.K.)

Abstract

We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We find evidence against the conventional wisdom that recessions are more violent than expansions: while some part of the downturn in economic activity that characterises recessionary periods can be attributed to dramatic changes in the price of oil, post-War US economic growth is characterized by the steepness of expansions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 185-204

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:185-204

Note: Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: September 2001
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Related research

Keywords: Oil prices; Business cycle asymmetries; Markov-switching models;

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Cited by:
  1. Aloui, Chaker & Jammazi, Rania, 2009. "The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 789-799, September.
  2. Park, Sung Y. & Zhao, Guochang, 2010. "An estimation of U.S. gasoline demand: A smooth time-varying cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 110-120, January.
  3. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
  4. Julien Chevallier, 2013. "Price relationships in crude oil futures: new evidence from CFTC disaggregated data," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 15(2), pages 133-170, April.
  5. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  6. Barnett, Alina & Straub, Roland, 2008. "What drives U.S. current account fluctuations?," Working Paper Series 0959, European Central Bank.
  7. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
  8. Marcelo Savino Portugal & Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais, 2004. "Business Cycle In The Industrial Production Of Brazilian States," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 23, Econometric Society.
  9. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
  10. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach & Stan Radchenko, 2004. "The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics," Departmental Working Papers 200405, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  12. van Dijk, Dick & Hans Franses, Philip & Peter Boswijk, H., 2007. "Absorption of shocks in nonlinear autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4206-4226, May.
  13. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices," Microeconomics 0406001, EconWPA.
  14. Stan Radchenko & Oleg Korenok, 2004. "The role of permanent and transitory components in business cycle volatility moderation," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 149, Econometric Society.
  15. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
  16. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "Can regime-switching models reproduce the business cycle features of US aggregate consumption, investment and output?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 1-14.

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