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Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship

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  • Grasso, Margherita
  • Manera, Matteo

Abstract

The existing literature on price asymmetries does not systematically investigate the sensitivity of the empirical results to the choice of a particular econometric specification. This paper fills this gap by providing a detailed comparison of the three most popular models designed to describe asymmetric price behaviour, namely asymmetric ECM, autoregressive threshold ECM and ECM with threshold cointegration. Each model is estimated on a common monthly dataset for the gasoline markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK over the period 1985-2003. All models are able to capture the temporal delay in the reaction of retail prices to changes in spot gasoline and crude oil prices, as well as some evidence of asymmetric behaviour. However, the type of market and the number of countries which are characterized by asymmetric oil-gasoline price relations vary across models. The asymmetric ECM yields some evidence of asymmetry for all countries, mainly at the distribution stage. The threshold ECM strongly rejects the null hypothesis of symmetric price behaviour, particularly in the case of France and Germany. Finally, the ECM with threshold cointegration finds long-run asymmetry for each country in the reaction of retail prices to oil price changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 35 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 156-177

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:35:y:2007:i:1:p:156-177

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Cited by:
  1. Contín-Pilart, Ignacio & Correljé, Aad F. & Blanca Palacios, M., 2009. "Competition, regulation, and pricing behaviour in the Spanish retail gasoline market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 219-228, January.
  2. Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2014. "Forecasting the Oil-gasoline Price Relationship: Should We Care about the Rockets and the Feathers?," Working Papers 2014.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Perdiguero-García, Jordi, 2013. "Symmetric or asymmetric oil prices? A meta-analysis approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 389-397.
  4. Serra, Teresa & Gil, Jose Maria, 2012. "Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126056, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Polemis, Michail & Fotis, Panagiotis, 2011. "The gasoline Industry in European Union and the USA," MPRA Paper 35097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Polemis, Michail & Fotis, Panagiotis, 2011. "Gasoline price asymmetries in the Euro Zone," MPRA Paper 32755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Dees, Stephane & Mann, Micheal, 2009. "Horizontal and vertical transmissions in the US oil supply chain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 644-650, February.
  8. Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior, 2011. "Modelling Fuel Prices. An I(1) Analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 3(2), pages 75-95, June.
  9. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Cointegration between oil spot and future prices of the same and different grades in the presence of structural change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1687-1693, May.
  10. Al-Gudhea, Salim & Kenc, Turalay & Dibooglu, Sel, 2007. "Do retail gasoline prices rise more readily than they fall?: A threshold cointegration approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 560-574.
  11. Atil, Ahmed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 567-573.
  12. Mendonca, Gui Pedro, 2008. "Structural Breaks, Regime Change and Asymmetric Adjustment: A Short and Long Run Global Approach to the Output/Unemployment Dynamics," MPRA Paper 14648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Özgür Bor & Mustafa Ýsmihan, 2013. "Gasoline Pricing, Taxation and Asymmetry: The Case of Turkey," Working Papers 2013/7, Turkish Economic Association.
  14. Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The effects of oil prices on the price indices in Taiwan: International or domestic oil prices matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 730-738.
  15. Mirza, Faisal Mehmood & Bergland, Olvar, 2012. "Pass-through of wholesale price to the end user retail price in the Norwegian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2003-2012.
  16. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Shin, Yongcheol, 2013. "Taxation and the asymmetric adjustment of selected retail energy prices in the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 411-416.
  17. Klaus Mohn & Petter Osmundsen, 2011. "Asymmetry and uncertainty in capital formation: an application to oil investment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4387-4401.
  18. Balaguer, Jacint & Ripollés, Jordi, 2012. "Testing for price response asymmetries in the Spanish fuel market. New evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2066-2071.
  19. Srinivasan, Sunderasan, 2014. "Economic populism, partial deregulation of transport fuels and electoral outcomes in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 465-475.
  20. Contín Pilart, Ignacio & Correljé, Aad F. & Palacios, María Blanca, 2006. "Competition, regulation, and pricing behavior in the Spanish retail gasoline market," BILTOKI 2006-02, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
  21. Perdiguero García, Jordi, 2010. "Dynamic pricing in the spanish gasoline market: A tacit collusion equilibrium," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1931-1937, April.
  22. Michael Polemis, 2012. "Competition and price asymmetries in the Greek oil sector: an empirical analysis on gasoline market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 789-817, October.

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