New evidence on the relationship beetween crude oil and petroleum product prices
AbstractThe present study aims at providing new evidence on the price re- lationships between crude oil and petroleum products. We employ single-equation error correction models (ECM) in which both changes in crude oil price and deviations from the long-run equilibrium are used to explain product price dynamics. A GARCH structure is applied to models' residuals to account for the time-varying volatility. Our key piece of innovation is the introduction of re¯ning margin e®ects to the analysis of the asymmetric products price movements. Results suggest that the overall balance in the re¯nery sector plays an important part in the adjustment to crude price shocks.
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Oil prices; Market integration; Cointegration; Error correction models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - General
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2007-03-24 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2007-03-24 (Macroeconomics)
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