Nonlinearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for M1
AbstractThe paper finds evidence of non-linearities in the dynamics of the euro-area demand for the narrow aggregate M1. A long-run money demand relationship is first estimated over a sample period covering the last three decades. While the parameters of the relationship are jointly stable, there are indications of non-linearity in the residuals of the error-correction model. This non-linearity is explicitly modelled using a fairly general Markov switching error-correction model with satisfactory results. The empirical findings of the paper are consistent with theoretical predictions of non-linearities in the dynamics of adjustment to equilibrium stemming from "buffer stock" and "target-threshold" models and with analogous empirical evidence for European countries and the US.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 690.
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Euro area; cointegration; non-linear error-correction; demand for money;
Other versions of this item:
- Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2009. "Nonlinearities In The Dynamics Of The Euro Area Demand For M1," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 1-19, February.
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-11-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-11-11 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2008-11-11 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2008-11-11 (Monetary Economics)
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