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Conditional Markov regime switching model applied to economic modelling

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  • Stéphane Goutte

    ()
    (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - Université Paris VIII - Vincennes Saint-Denis : EA3391)

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the calibration issues of regime switching models built on mean-reverting and local volatility processes combined with two Markov regime switch- ing processes. In fact, the volatility structure of this model depends on a first exogenous Markov chain whereas the drift structure depends on a conditional Markov chain with re- spect to the first one. The structure is also assumed to be Markovian and both structure and regime are unobserved. Regarding this construction, we extend the classical Expectation- Maximization (EM) algorithm to be applied to our regime switching model. We apply it to economic datas (Euro-Dollars foreign exchange rate and Brent oil price) to show that this modelling well identifies both mean reverting and volatility regimes switches. More- over, it allows us to give economic interpretations of this regime classification such as some financial crisis or some economic policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00747479.

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Date of creation: 31 Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00747479

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Related research

Keywords: Markov regime switching; Expectation-Maximization algorithm; mean-reverting; local volatility; economics data.;

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  1. Stéphane Goutte & Benteng Zou, 2012. "Continuous time regime switching model applied to foreign exchange rate," Working Papers hal-00643900, HAL.
  2. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
  3. Choi Seungmoon, 2009. "Regime-Switching Univariate Diffusion Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-41, March.
  4. Baele, L., 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Discussion Paper 2003-114, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  6. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-82, April.
  7. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
  8. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2011. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/11/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  10. Bai, Jushan & Wang, Peng, 2011. "Conditional Markov chain and its application in economic time series analysis," MPRA Paper 33369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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