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CHANGES IN THE INFLATION PROCESS IN CANADA: Evidence and Implications

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Author Info
Doug Hostland

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Abstract

The Canadian economy is currently in transition from a period of disinflation to one with a very low and relatively stable inflation rate. Against this background, the author asks whether reduced-form parameters should be expected to be invariant to changes in the inflation process. This raises two empirical issues. The first relates to whether shifts in the Canadian inflation process can be identified over time. It appears so, since casual observation as well as various statistical procedures indicate that there was a unique period from the mid-1950s to the early 1970s when inflation was low and relatively stable. The second issue relates to whether there is evidence that parameter instability corresponds to shifts in the inflation regime. Statistical tests indicate that parameter instability is an important concern in reduced-form models of the inflation process, particularly for the early 1970s. The evidence for Canada suggests that inflation forecasts from reduced-form models may be unreliable in the presence of important changes in the inflation process.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 9508001.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 04 Aug 1995
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9508001

Note: 42 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report.
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  2. Ploberger, Werner & Kr?mer;, Walter, 1990. "The Local Power of the CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 335-347, September. [Downloadable!]
  3. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:3:p:335-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr. [Downloadable!]
  5. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-69, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
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  10. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-66, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Schmidt, P., 1988. "Dickey-Fuller Tests With Drift," Papers 8717, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. A. R. Pagan & A. D. Hall, 1983. "Diagnostic tests as residual analysis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 159-218. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Stephen Poloz & David Rose & Robert Tetlow, 1994. "The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1994(Autumn), pages 23-38. [Downloadable!]
  15. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1997. "Inflation regimes and inflation expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 581, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Butler, L, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Porjection Model Part 4 : A Semi- Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output : Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter," Technical Reports 77, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2003. "Alternative Sources of the Lag Dynamics of Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 92, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas, . "Análisis del Comportamiento de la Inflación Trimestral en Colombia Bajo Cambios de Régimen: Una Evidencia a Través del Modelo: "Switching" de Hamilton," Borradores de Economia 086, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Martha MisasA., 2005. "Analisis Delcomportamiento De La Inflacíon Trimestral En Colombia Bajo Cambios De Regimen: Una Evidencia A Traves Del Modelo," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001993, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jean-François Fillion & André Léonard, 1997. "La courbe de Phillips au Canada : un examen de quelques hypothèses," Working Papers 97-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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