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Stock Prices and Economic Fluctuations: A Markov Switching Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis

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Author Info
Markku Lanne ()
Helmut Luetkepohl ()

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Abstract

The role of expectations for economic fluctuations has received considerable attention in recent business cycle analysis. We exploit Markov regime switching models to identify shocks in cointegrated structural vector autoregressions and investigate different identification schemes for bi-variate systems comprising U.S. stock prices and total factor productivity. The former variable is viewed as reflecting expectations of economic agents about future productivity. It is found that some previously used identification schemes can be rejected in our model setup. The results crucially depend on the measure used for total factor productivity.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2407.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2407

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Related research
Keywords: cointegration; Markov regime switching model; vector error correction model; structural vector autoregression; mixed normal distribution;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The 'News' View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral US Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 13444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lucke, Bernd & Haertel, Thomas, 2008. "Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from German Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(10), pages 1-21. [Downloadable!]
  6. Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2005. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Nonnormal Residuals," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/25, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-3.

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