Central bank communication and the perception of monetary policy by financial market experts
AbstractThis paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's interest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2010/29.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Garystr. 21, 14195 Berlin (Dahlem)
Phone: (030) 838 2272
Fax: (030) 838 2129
Web page: http://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/en/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Central bank communication; Interest rate forecasts; Survey expectations; Panel random coefficient model;
Other versions of this item:
- Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 323-340, 03.
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-02-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2011-02-05 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-02-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-02-05 (Monetary Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Lars winkelmann & Markus Bibinger & Tobias Linzert, 2013. "ECB monetary policy surprises: identification through cojumps in interest rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-038, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Lang, Gunnar, 2012. "Lessons of the financial crisis for the attractiveness of European financial centers," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-080, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.