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Value at risk for a mixture of normal distributions: the use of quasi- Bayesian estimation techniques

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  • Subu Venkataraman

Abstract

This article proposes a methodology for measuring value at risk for fat-tailed asset return distributions. Simulation-based results indicate that this approach provides better estimates of risk than one based on the assumption that asset returns are normally distributed.

Suggested Citation

  • Subu Venkataraman, 1997. "Value at risk for a mixture of normal distributions: the use of quasi- Bayesian estimation techniques," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 21(Mar), pages 2-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:1997:i:mar:p:2-13:n:v.21no.2
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    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Khorunzhina & Jean-François Richard, 2019. "Finite Gaussian Mixture Approximations to Analytically Intractable Density Kernels," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 991-1017, March.
    2. Wentao Hu, 2019. "calculation worst-case Value-at-Risk prediction using empirical data under model uncertainty," Papers 1908.00982, arXiv.org.
    3. Cotter, John, 2001. "Margin exceedences for European stock index futures using extreme value theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1475-1502, August.
    4. Pertaia Giorgi & Uryasev Stan, 2019. "Fitting heavy-tailed mixture models with CVaR constraints," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 365-374, January.
    5. Huang, Alex YiHou, 2010. "An optimization process in Value-at-Risk estimation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 109-116, August.
    6. Hailiang Yang, 2000. "An Integrated Risk Management Method: VaR Approach," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(3-4), pages 201-219, September.
    7. Meade, Nigel, 2010. "Oil prices -- Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1485-1498, November.
    8. Jianxin Ge & Hongjia Xu & Massimiliano M. Pellegrini, 2019. "The Effect of Value Co-Creation on Social Enterprise Growth: Moderating Mechanism of Environment Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    9. Alex YiHou Huang, 2010. "An optimization process in Value‐at‐Risk estimation," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 109-116, August.
    10. Mark R. Manfredo & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1998. "Agricultural Applications of Value-at-Risk Analysis: A Perspective," Finance 9805002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. de Araújo, André da Silva & Garcia, Maria Teresa Medeiros, 2013. "Risk contagion in the north-western and southern European stock markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-34.
    12. Douglas Cumming & Lars Helge Haß & Denis Schweizer, 2014. "Strategic Asset Allocation and the Role of Alternative Investments," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(3), pages 521-547, June.
    13. Buckley, Ian & Saunders, David & Seco, Luis, 2008. "Portfolio optimization when asset returns have the Gaussian mixture distribution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1434-1461, March.
    14. Ning, Cathy & Xu, Dinghai & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2015. "Is volatility clustering of asset returns asymmetric?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 62-76.
    15. Cotter, John, 2004. "Downside Risk for European Equity Markets," MPRA Paper 3537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jin Wang & Michael R. Taaffe, 2015. "Multivariate Mixtures of Normal Distributions: Properties, Random Vector Generation, Fitting, and as Models of Market Daily Changes," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 193-203, May.
    17. Marco Bee, 2007. "The asymptotic loss distribution in a fat-tailed factor model of portfolio credit risk," Department of Economics Working Papers 0701, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    18. Yinan Li & Kai-Tai Fang & Ping He & Heng Peng, 2022. "Representative Points from a Mixture of Two Normal Distributions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-28, October.
    19. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoğlu, 2007. "Comparing density forecast models Previous versions of this paper have been circulated with the title, 'A Test for Density Forecast Comparison with Applications to Risk Management' since October 2003;," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 203-225.
    20. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoglu, 2006. "Evaluating predictive performance of value-at-risk models in emerging markets: a reality check," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 101-128.
    21. Kalantaridis, Christos & Küttim, Merle, 2023. "Multi-dimensional time and university technology commercialisation as opportunity praxis: A realist synthesis of the accumulated literature," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    22. José Carlos Ramirez Sánchez, 2004. "Usos y limitaciones de los procesos estocásticos en el tratamiento de distribuciones de rendimientos con colas gordas," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 51-76, June.

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    Econometric models; Risk;

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