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Deviations from uncovered interest parity in Malaysia

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Author Info

  • Soo Khoon Goh
  • Guay Lim
  • Nilss Olekalns

Abstract

This paper applies the Switching ARCH (SWARCH) model of Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to investigate the dynamics of deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) for Malaysia for the sample period 1978-2002. In particular, the deviations (or the risk premium) are modelled as a time series subject to discrete regime shifts between two possible states, “high volatility” and “low volatility”. We find that the SWARCH model provides a better description of the data and implies a much lower degree of volatility persistence than conventional ARCH models. Overall, the SWARCH model provides a clearer picture of how the UIP deviations have evolved over time and how the changes in the volatility of the deviations have coincided with major changes in financial liberalisation in Malaysia. This adds credibility to the hypothesis that the shifts are not statistical artefacts but indeed reflect real economic changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2006)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 745-759

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:16:y:2006:i:10:p:745-759

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References

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  1. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
  2. Hamid Faruqee, 1991. "Dynamic Capital Mobility in Pacific Basin Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/115, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  5. Tse Yiu Kuen & Tan Kim Song, 1996. "Interest Parity and Dynamic Capital Mobility: The Experience of Singapore," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5, pages 335-357 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Goh, S. K. & Alias, M. H. & Olekalns, N., 2003. "New evidence on financial openness in Malaysia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 311-325, April.
  7. Fong, Wai Mun & See, Kim Hock, 2002. "A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 71-95, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ai Lian Tan Author_Email: tanal@utar.edu.my & Shiau Mooi Lim & Seow Shin Koong & Ying Yin Koay, 2011. "Exchange Rate And Current Account: Are They Co-Integrated Symmetrically Or Asymmetrically?," Annual Summit on Business and Entrepreneurial Studies (ASBES 2011) Proceeding 2011-019-150, Conference Master Resources.
  2. repec:eid:wpaper:02/11 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Özcan Karahan & Olcay Çolak, 2012. "Does Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold in Turkey?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 386-394.
  4. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, A. & Morley, B., 2011. "Uncovered Interest Parity and the Risk Premium," Department of Economics Working Papers 24072, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
  5. Maria Grydaki & Stilianos Fountas, 2010. "What Explains Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility? Evidence from the Latin American Countries," Discussion Paper Series 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jul 2010.
  6. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 568-573, January.
  7. Cavoli, Tony, 2012. "Exploring dimensions of regional economic integration in East Asia: More than the sum of its parts?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 643-653.
  8. Kim, Heeho, 2011. "The risk adjusted uncovered equity parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1491-1505.
  9. Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap & Gairuzazmi M Ghani, 2012. "Malaysia's Time Varying Capital Mobility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1361-1368.

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