Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets

Contents:

Author Info

  • Tsouma, Ekaterini

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the dynamic interdependencies between stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets. The existence, kind and strength of potential uni-directional and/or bi-directional relations are examined, running from stock returns to future economic activity and/or from economic activity to future stock returns. A bivariate VAR(12) model is applied and Granger causality tests are performed. Monthly data covering the January 1991-December 2006 period are used. The existence of an empirical relationship, with forecasting ability, between stock returns and future economic activity is confirmed. The results are strongly differentiated between mature and emerging markets.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W5X-4RX077V-1/2/1053ccca40ac7634241eef5d79e648f9
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 49 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 668-685

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:49:y:2009:i:2:p:668-685

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167

Related research

Keywords: Mature and emerging markets Stock returns-economic activity nexus VAR Granger causality;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
  2. Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
  3. Barry Bosworth, 1975. "The Stock Market and the Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 527-300.
  4. Schwert, G William, 1990. " Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-57, September.
  5. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 237-252, May.
  6. Gallinger, George W, 1994. "Causality Tests of the Real Stock Return-Real Activity Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 271-88, Summer.
  7. Torsten Sløk & Peter F. Christoffersen, 2000. "Do Asset Prices in Transition Countries Contain Information About Future Economic Activity?," IMF Working Papers 00/103, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Canova, Fabio & De Nicolo', Gianni, 1995. "Stock returns and real activity: A structural approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 981-1015, May.
  9. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-31.
  10. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  11. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
  12. Hassapis, Christis & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2002. "Investigating the links between growth and real stock price changes with empirical evidence from the G-7 economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 543-575.
  13. Binswanger, Mathias, 2000. "Stock market booms and real economic activity: Is this time different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 387-415, October.
  14. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
  15. Canova, Fabio & de Nicolo, Gianni, 1997. "Stock Returns, Term Structure, Inflation and Real Activity: An International Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Jean-Marie Dufour & David Tessier, 2006. "Short-Run and Long-Run Causality between Monetary Policy Variables and Stock Prices," Working Papers 06-39, Bank of Canada.
  17. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-43, March.
  18. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2004. "Fundamental share prices and aggregate real output," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 651-661.
  19. Mathias Binswanger, 2000. "Stock returns and real activity: is there still a connection?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 379-387.
  20. Asprem, Mads, 1989. "Stock prices, asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten European countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 589-612, September.
  21. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-28, September.
  22. McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707.
  23. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. " Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-603, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2012. "Interação entre o mercado acionista e o crescimento económico: Uma apreciação do caso português (1993-2010)
    [Interaction between the stock market and economic growth: An assessment of the Por
    ," MPRA Paper 39808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Komain Jiranyakul, 2013. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 317-328, March.
  3. Bekhet, Hussain Ali & Matar, Ali, 2013. "Co-integration and causality analysis between stock market prices and their determinates in Jordan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 508-514.
  4. Guneratne Wickremasinghe, 2011. "The Sri Lankan stock market and the macroeconomy: an empirical investigation," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 179-195, August.
  5. Ozlem Goktas & Aycan Hepsag, 2011. "Do stock returns lead real economic activity? Evidence from seasonal cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2117-2127.
  6. Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2013. "Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 316-324.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:49:y:2009:i:2:p:668-685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.