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Fundamental share prices and aggregate real output

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  • Nicolaas Groenewold
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    Abstract

    This study analyses the interrelationships between the share market and the macroeconomy within the framework of a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The model has just two variables - real share prices and real output - and uses a distinction between temporary and permanent shocks to identify macroeconomic and share market-shocks. The identification of the SVAR is based on a simple theoretical model of the two-way linkage between output and share prices. In one direction a version of the net-present-value model is used and in the other direction the wealth effect is relied on as the basis for the influence of share prices on output. The estimated model is used to examine the dynamic interaction between the two variables. The study goes on to use it to compute a fundamental share-price series based on the assumption that fundamentals are driven by real macroeconomic forces.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 14 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 9 ()
    Pages: 651-661

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:9:p:651-661

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    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20

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    Cited by:
    1. Anton Velinov & Wenjuan Chen, 2014. "Are There Bubbles in Stock Prices? Testing for Fundamental Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1375, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Eldomiaty, Tarek, 2010. "How do stock prices respond to fundamental shocks in the case of the United States? Evidence from NASDAQ and DJIA," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 310-322, August.
    3. Wenjuan Chen & Anton Velinov, 2012. "Do Japanese Stock Prices Reflect Macro Fundamentals?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Anton Velinov, 2013. "Can Stock Price Fundamentals Properly be Captured?: Using Markov Switching in Heteroskedasticity Models to Test Identification Schemes," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1350, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Muhammed Monjurul Quadir, 2012. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Returns on Dhaka Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 480-487.
    6. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.

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