IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/56407.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Transitional Dynamics of Oil Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Kal, Süleyman Hilmi
  • Arslaner, Ferhat
  • Arslaner, Nuran

Abstract

There has been a well-known relationship between macro financial fundamentals and oil prices, yet there is also ample evidence that this relationship weakens during some periods. In this paper, we investigated whether the relationship between oil and macro financial fundamentals vary depending on gold price of oil. To achieve this, a Markov model is implemented to the monthly data for the period 1974 - 2010. In the Markov model utilized in this paper, transition probabilities are endogenous and governed by the volatilities of oil, gold, stock market and exchange rate. This allowed us to endogenously model the switching process. Our results provide evidence that the link between oil price and macro financial fundamentals disappears in the periods of inexpensive gold price of oil. Our findings also provide evidence that the volatilities of the variables matter only when gold price of oil is inexpensive.

Suggested Citation

  • Kal, Süleyman Hilmi & Arslaner, Ferhat & Arslaner, Nuran, 2013. "Transitional Dynamics of Oil Prices," MPRA Paper 56407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56407
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56407/1/MPRA_paper_56407.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    5. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Ramazan Sari & Bradley T. Ewing, 2009. "Relationships Among Strategic Commodities And With Financial Variables: A New Look," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(2), pages 251-264, April.
    6. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
    7. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kal, Süleyman Hilmi & Arslaner, Ferhat & Arslaner, Nuran, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 592-607.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.
    2. Kal, Süleyman Hilmi & Arslaner, Ferhat & Arslaner, Nuran, 2013. "Gold, Stock Price, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An MS VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 56406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dmitry Kulikov, 2012. "Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles on the Estonian Stock Market," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    4. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
    5. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
    6. Nan Li & Simon S. Kwok, 2021. "Jointly determining the state dimension and lag order for Markov‐switching vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 471-491, July.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla Ali & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2015. "International Portfolio Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility for Emerging Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1519, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    9. Ilu, Ahmad Ibraheem, 2019. "Oil price Volatility and Exchange rate Dynamics in Nigeria: A Markov Switching Approach," MPRA Paper 97643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 2003/032, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Morana, Claudio, 2000. "Measuring core inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
    12. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2021. "Strength of words: Donald Trump's tweets, sanctions and Russia's ruble," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 253-277.
    13. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-21.
    14. Chung-Ming Kuan, 2013. "Markov switching model (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 11, pages 13-40, December.
    15. Uctum, Remzi, 2007. "Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482, décembre.
    16. Hutchison, Michael M. & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Singh, Nirvikar, 2013. "Dove or Hawk? Characterizing monetary policy regime switches in India," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 183-202.
    17. Liu, Wen-Hsien & Chung, Ching-Fan & Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2013. "Inventory change, capacity utilization and the semiconductor industry cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-127.
    18. Morana, Claudio, 2000. "Measuring core inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0036, European Central Bank.
    19. Ana Oliveira-Brochado & Francisco Vitorino Martins, 2008. "Segmentação de Mercado e modelos mistura de regressão para variáveis normais," FEP Working Papers 262, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    20. Suman Das & Saikat Sinha Roy, 2021. "Predicting regime switching in BRICS currency volatility: a Markov switching autoregressive approach," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(2), pages 165-180, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Price; Gold Oil Ratio; Exchange Rates; Interest Rates; Stock Market Yields; Time Series Analysis; Markov Switching Regimes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.