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El impacto de los precios del petróleo sobre el crecimiento económico en Colombia

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  • Juan Ricardo Perilla Jiménez
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    Abstract

    RESUMEN:Este artículo forma parte de una investigación sobre el efecto del precio del petróleo sobre el crecimiento económico en Colombia a nivel agregado y sectorial. La estimación del impacto se realiza a ambos niveles aplicando técnicas de series de tiempo. La evidencia sugiere que éste impacto existe y es asimétrico a nivel agregado. En el período de análisis la dinámicade los precios habría tenido efectos cambiarios que favorecieron la importaciónde bienes intermedios y de capital pero al mismo tiempo habrían tenido consecuencias negativas para las exportaciones sectoriales. La combinación de estos dos principales efectos sobre el comportamiento de la producción sectorial no es concluyente ni homogénea entre sectores.ABSTRACT:This paper makes part of a research eFFort regarding the impact of oil prices over Colombian economic growth. Time series estimates for sector andaggregate activity are set which allow thinking of an asymmetrical relationshipbetween price shocks and overall economic growth. Price dynamics would haveimpacted real exchange rate thus favoring imports of intermediates and capitalgoods, but also had jeopardizing effects for sector exports. Nevertheless, these main effects do not allow drawing conclusion for production at the sector level nor are identical between di erent sectors.

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    File URL: http://www.urosario.edu.co/economia/documentos/vol13n1_Perilla.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO in its journal REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO.

    Volume (Year): (2010)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:col:000151:008804

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    Keywords: Crecimiento económico; Precios de energía; Series de Tiempo.;

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    References

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    1. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2008. "The impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3095-3108, November.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
    3. Jorgenson, Dale W, 1988. "Productivity and Postwar U.S. Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 23-41, Fall.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
    5. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Marc Hofstetter & Jorge Tovar, 2007. "Asymmetric Price Adjustments Under Ever-Increasing Costs. Evidence from the Retail Gasoline Market in Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 005146, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    7. Regnier, Eva, 2007. "Oil and energy price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 405-427, May.
    8. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
    9. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
    10. Lee, Kiseok & Ni, Shawn, 2002. "On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 823-852, May.
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