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Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?

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  • Phoebe Koundouri

    (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece)

  • Theologos Pantelidis

    (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Greece)

  • Ben Groom

    (Department of Economics, School of Oriental and African Studies, UK)

  • Ekaterini Panopoulou

Abstract

Recent work in evaluating investments with long-term consequences has turned towards establishing a schedule of Declining Discount Rates (DDRs). Using US data we show that the employment of models that account for changes in the interest rate generating mechanism has important implications for operationalising a theory of DDRs that depends upon uncertainty. The policy implications of DDRs are then analysed in the context of climate change for the USA, where the use of a state space model can increase valuations by 150% compared to conventional constant discounting. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.937
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 641-656

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:22:y:2007:i:3:p:641-656

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Gollier & Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "How Should the Distant Future be Discounted when Discount Rates are Uncertain?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2863, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Freeman, Mark C., 2009. "Yes, we should discount the far-distant future at its lowest possible rate: a resolution of the Weitzman-Gollier puzzle," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-42, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Hepburn, Cameron & Koundouri, Phoebe & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2009. "Social discounting under uncertainty: A cross-country comparison," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 140-150, March.
  4. Gollier, Christian, 2008. "Discounting with Fat-Tailed Economic Growth," IDEI Working Papers 523, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  5. Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2013. "Declining discount rates and the Fisher Effect: Inflated past, discounted future?," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 109, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  6. Birol, Ekin & Koundouri, Phoebe & Kountouris, Yiannis, 2010. "Assessing the economic viability of alternative water resources in water-scarce regions: Combining economic valuation, cost-benefit analysis and discounting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 839-847, February.
  7. Gollier, Christian, 2009. "Should We Discount the Far-Distant Future at Its Lowest Possible Rate?," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Cropper, Maureen, 2012. "How Should Benefits and Costs Be Discounted in an Intergenerational Context?," Discussion Papers dp-12-42, Resources For the Future.
  9. Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom, 2013. "How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 138, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  10. Weitzman, Martin L., 2010. "Risk-adjusted gamma discounting," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-13, July.

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