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Social Discounting Under Uncertainty: A cross-country comparison

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Author Info
Cameron Hepburn
Phoebe Koundouri
Ekaterini Panopoulou
Theologos Pantelidis

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Abstract

Recent research suggests that social cost-benefit analysis should be con- ducted with a declining discount rate. For instance, Newell and Pizer [23] show that the U.S. certainty-equivalent discount rate declines through time, using a simple autoregressive model of U.S. interest rates. This paper extends that line of research, estimating both autoregressive and regime-switching models of real interest rates to determine certainty- equivalent discount rates in Australia, Canada, Germany and the United Kingdom. It is found that the regime-switching model is a better model of past interest rate behavior for all four countries. This model tends to produce a more rapid decline in certainty-equivalent discount rates. The paper provides applications to the economics of climate change and nuclear power.

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp177.

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Date of creation: 16 Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp177

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Related research
Keywords: discounting; uncertainty; regime-switching models; climate change policy; nuclear power;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David Pearce & Ben Groom & Cameron Hepburn & Phoebe Koundouri, 2003. "Valuing the Future," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, PO Box 69, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, RG9 1GB, vol. 4(2), pages 121-141, April. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Pearce, 2003. "The Social Cost of Carbon and its Policy Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 362-384.
  3. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-82, April.
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  4. Christian Gollier & Richard Zeckhauser, 2005. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Time Preferences," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 878-896, August.
  5. Talbot Page, 2003. "Balancing efficiency and equity in long-run decision-making," International Journal of Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 70-86, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Discounting an uncertain future," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 149-166, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Dieter Bräuninger, 2003. "Demographics and Pension Reforms in the Major Central and Eastern European Countries," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, PO Box 69, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, RG9 1GB, vol. 4(1), pages 117-132, January. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pena-Torres, Julio & Pearson, Peter J. G., 2000. "Carbon abatement and new investment in liberalised electricity markets: a nuclear revival in the UK?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 115-135, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Loewenstein, George & Prelec, Drazen, 1992. "Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 573-97, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Discounting the distant future: how much do uncertain rates increase valuations?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 52-71, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Weitzman, Martin L., 1998. "Why the Far-Distant Future Should Be Discounted at Its Lowest Possible Rate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 201-208, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Schelling, Thomas C, 1995. "Intergenerational discounting," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 395-401. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Time Horizon and the Discount Rate," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 463-473, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ekaterini Panopoulou & B. Groom & P. Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis, 2005. "Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1480105, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Gollier, Christian & Koundouri, Phoebe & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2008. "Declining Discount Rates: Economic Justifications and Implications for Long-Run Policy," IDEI Working Papers 525, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
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