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Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates

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Author Info
Richard Tol

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Abstract

Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts areexpressed as functions of climate change and `vulnerability'. Vulnerabilityis measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, populationabove 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine worldregions, for the period 2000–2200, for agriculture, forestry, waterresources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector-borne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders.Uncertainties are large, often including sign switches. In the short term,the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be thecrucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of thesector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts can be negativeor positive, depending on the time, region, and sector one is looking at.Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorerregions. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1014539414591
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Publisher Info
Article provided by European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in its journal Environmental and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 135-160
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Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:21:y:2002:i:2:p:135-160

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100263

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Keywords: adaptation; climate change; impacts;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Tol, Richard S. J., 1996. "The damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 67-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. [Downloadable!]
  3. Avinash Persaud, 2000. "Sending the Herd off the Cliff Edge," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, PO Box 69, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, RG9 1GB, vol. 1(4), pages 15-26, October. [Downloadable!]
  4. Samuel Fankhauser & Richard Tol & DAVID Pearce, 1997. "The Aggregation of Climate Change Damages: a Welfare Theoretic Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(3), pages 249-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roberto Roson & Richard s.J. Tol, 2003. "An Integrated Assessment Model Of Economy-Energy-Climate – The Model Wiagem: A Comment," Working Papers FNU-26, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2003. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul Baer & Clive L Spash, 2008. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change: Stern Revisited," Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper Series 2008-07, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert J. Nicholls & Richard S.J. Tol & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2005. "Global Estimates Of The Impact Of A Collapse Of The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-78, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gary W. Yohe & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Infinite Uncertainty, Forgotten Feedbacks, And Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Climate Policy," Working Papers FNU-83, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Richard S.J. Tol & Kristie L. Ebi & Gary W. Yohe, 2006. "Infectious Disease, Development, And Climate Change: A Scenario Analysis," Working Papers FNU-109, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Technology Protocols For Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-14, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2002. [Downloadable!]
  7. Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Benefits Of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-64, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2005. [Downloadable!]
  8. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Emission Abatement Versus Development As Strategies To Reduce Vulnerability To Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-12, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2002. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Exchange Rates And Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-45, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
  10. Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Double Trade-Off Between Adaptation And Mitigation For Sea Level Rise: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-48, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Polluter Pays Principle And Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-98, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  12. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
  13. Claudia Kemfert & Katja Schumacher, 2005. "Costs of Inaction and Costs of Action in Climate Protection: Assessment of Costs of Inaction or Delayed Action of Climate Protection and Climate Change ; Final Report ; Project FKZ 904 41 362 for the ," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 13, number pbk13. [Downloadable!]
  14. David Anthoff & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "On International Equity Weights And National Decision Making On Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-127, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  15. David Anthoff & Cameron Hepburn & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change," Working Papers FNU-121, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Climate, Development And Malaria: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-16, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2002. [Downloadable!]
  17. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," NBER Working Papers 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "The Marginal Costs Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Assessment Of The Uncertainties," Working Papers FNU-19, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2003. [Downloadable!]
  19. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Economy-Wide Estimates Of The Implications Of Climate Change: Human Health," Working Papers FNU-57, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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