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Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates

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  • Richard Tol

Abstract

Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts areexpressed as functions of climate change and `vulnerability'. Vulnerabilityis measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, populationabove 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine worldregions, for the period 2000–2200, for agriculture, forestry, waterresources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector-borne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders.Uncertainties are large, often including sign switches. In the short term,the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be thecrucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of thesector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts can be negativeor positive, depending on the time, region, and sector one is looking at.Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorerregions. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in its journal Environmental and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 135-160

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Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:21:y:2002:i:2:p:135-160

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100263

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Keywords: adaptation; climate change; impacts;

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  1. Fankhauser, Samuel & Smith, Joel B. & Tol, Richard S. J., 1999. "Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 67-78, July.
  2. Tol, Richard S. J., 1996. "The damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 67-90, October.
  3. Samuel Fankhauser & Richard Tol & DAVID Pearce, 1997. "The Aggregation of Climate Change Damages: a Welfare Theoretic Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(3), pages 249-266, October.
  4. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  5. Tol, Richard S. J., 1994. "The damage costs of climate change: a note on tangibles and intangibles, applied to DICE," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 436-438, May.
  6. Avinash Persaud, 2000. "Sending the Herd off the Cliff Edge," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 1(4), pages 15-26, October.
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