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Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?

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Author Info
Ekaterini Panopoulou () (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Greece and Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland Maynooth.)
B. Groom (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, University College London.)
P. Koundouri (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, University of Reading, UK and Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, University College London, UK.)
Theologos Pantelidis (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Greece.)

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Abstract

Evaluating investments with long-term consequences using discount rates that decline with the time horizon, (Declining Discount Rates or DDRs) means that future welfare changes are of greater consequence in present value terms. Recent work in this area has turned towards operationalising the theory and establishing a schedule of DDRs for use in cost benefit analysis. Using US data we make the following points concerning this transition: i) model selection has important implications for operationalising a theory of DDRs that depends upon uncertainty; ii) misspecification testing naturally leads to employing models that account for changes in the interest rate generating mechanism. Lastly, we provide an analysis of the policy implications of DDRs in the context of climate change for the US and show that the use of a state space model can increase valuations by 150% compared to conventional constant discounting.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth in its series Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series with number n1480105.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1480105

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Postal: Maynooth, Co. Kildare
Phone: 353-1-7083728
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Related research
Keywords: long-run discounting; interest rate forecasting; interest rate forecasting; state-space models; regime-switching models; climate change policy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cameron Hepburn & Phoebe Koundouri & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2006. "Social Discounting Under Uncertainty: A cross-country comparison," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp177, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Gollier, Christian, 2009. "Should We Discount the Far-Distant Future at Its Lowest Possible Rate?," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Christian Gollier, 2008. "Discounting with fat-tailed economic growth," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 171-186, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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