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Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates

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Author Info
Richard Tol

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Abstract

A selection of the potential impacts of climate change – on agriculture,forestry, unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, human mortality, energyconsumption, and water resources – are estimated and valued in monetaryterms. Estimates are derived from globally comprehensive, internallyconsistent studies using GCM based scenarios. An underestimate of theuncertainty is given. New impact studies can be included following themeta-analytical methods described here. A 1 °C increase in the globalmean surface air temperature would have, on balance, a positive effect onthe OECD, China, and the Middle East, and a negative effect on othercountries. Confidence intervals of regionally aggregated impacts, however,include both positive and negative impacts for all regions. Global estimatesdepend on the aggregation rule. Using a simple sum, world impact of a1 °C warming would be a positive 2% of GDP, with a standarddeviation of 1%. Using globally averaged values, world impact would be anegative 3% (standard deviation: 1%). Using equity weighting, worldimpact would amount to 0% (standard deviation: 1%). Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1014500930521
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Publisher Info
Article provided by European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in its journal Environmental and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 47-73
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Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:21:y:2002:i:1:p:47-73

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100263

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Keywords: adaptation; climate change; impacts;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kahnemant, Daniel & Knetsch, Jack L., 1992. "Contingent valuation and the value of public goods: Reply," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 90-94, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-37, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Samuel Fankhauser, 1994. "The Social Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Expected Value Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 157-184.
  4. Tol, Richard S. J., 1996. "The damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 67-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. S. Fankhauser & R. Tol, 1997. "The social costs of climate change: The IPCC second assessment report and beyond," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 385-403, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Andreoni, James, 1988. "Privately provided public goods in a large economy: The limits of altruism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 57-73, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Donald H. Rosenthal & Howard K. Gruenspecht & Emily A. Moran, 1995. "Effects of Global Warming on Energy Use for Space Heating and Cooling in the United States," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 16(2), pages 77-96.
  8. Samuel Fankhauser & Richard Tol & DAVID Pearce, 1997. "The Aggregation of Climate Change Damages: a Welfare Theoretic Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(3), pages 249-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Anthoff & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "On International Equity Weights And National Decision Making On Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-127, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Robert J. Nicholls & Richard S.J. Tol & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2005. "Global Estimates Of The Impact Of A Collapse Of The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-78, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005. [Downloadable!]
  3. Andrea Bigano & Maria Berrittella & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism," Working Papers 2004.127, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Technology Protocols For Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-14, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2002. [Downloadable!]
  5. Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Benefits Of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-64, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2005. [Downloadable!]
  6. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Economy-Wide Estimates Of The Implications Of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Working Papers FNU-38, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Anthoff, David, 2009. "Optimal Global Dynamic Carbon Taxation," Papers WP278, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  8. Frank Jotzo & John C. V. Pezzey, 2005. "Optimal intensity targets for emissions trading under uncertainty (now replaced by EEN0605)," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0504, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network. [Downloadable!]
  9. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Climate, Development And Malaria: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-16, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2002. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joseph E. Aldy & Alan J. Krupnick & Richard G. Newell & Ian W.H. Parry & William A. Pizer, 2009. "Designing Climate Mitigation Policy," NBER Working Papers 15022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Exchange Rates And Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-45, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
  12. Gollier, Christian & Koundouri, Phoebe & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2008. "Declining Discount Rates: Economic Justifications and Implications for Long-Run Policy," IDEI Working Papers 525, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Double Trade-Off Between Adaptation And Mitigation For Sea Level Rise: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-48, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Harold Houba & Hans Kremers, 2009. "Environmental Damage and Price Taking Behaviour by Firms and Consumers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-029/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Polluter Pays Principle And Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-98, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
  17. Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth Stanton, . "06-05 Can Climate Change Save Lives? A comment on “Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health”," GDAE Working Papers 06-05, GDAE, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  18. Rob Dellink & Michael Finus & Niels Olieman, 2008. "The stability likelihood of an international climate agreement," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 39(4), pages 357-377, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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