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Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises

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  • EMINE BOZ

Abstract

Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic usually occurring after a precrisis bonanza. This paper develops an equilibrium asset pricing model with informational frictions in which crisis itself is a consequence of the investor optimism in the period preceding the crisis. If preceded by a sequence of positive signals, a small, negative noise shock can trigger a downward adjustment in investors' beliefs, asset prices, and consumption. The magnitude of this downward adjustment increases with the level of optimism attained prior to the negative signal. Moreover, with informational frictions, asset prices display persistent effects in response to transitory shocks.

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  • Emine Boz, 2009. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1189-1215, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:6:p:1189-1215
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00252.x
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    1. Bilge Erten & Anton Korinek & José Antonio Ocampo, 2021. "Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 45-89, March.

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