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Persistent and Transitory Shocks, Learning, and Investment Dynamics

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Author Info
Moore, Bartholomew
Schaller, Huntley

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Abstract

This paper introduces a new approach to understanding investment. The distinctive feature of our approach is that shocks to the economic fundamentals have both persistent and transitory components, and that firms must disentangle the persistent from the transitory shocks. The model generates interesting dynamics. Simulations of the model show that the response of investment to changes in the interest rate can vary widely over time, that the current response of investment depends on the sequence of past shocks, that investment will respond less when the firm is confident about its beliefs and more when a change in economic fundamentals challenges the firm's beliefs, and that investment booms and crashes may occur without any change in the true state of the economy. Simulations of the model also show that it captures many "stylized facts" of investment dynamics documented in previous empirical studies.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 34 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 650-77
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:34:y:2002:i:3:p:650-77

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Abel, Andrew B., 1982. "Dynamic effects of permanent and temporary tax policies in a q model of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 353-373. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Demers, Michel, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 333-50, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bertola, Guiseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(2), pages 223-46, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1996. "The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 510-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
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  7. Blanchard, Olivier & Rhee, Changyong & Summers, Lawrence, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 115-36, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Laura Power, 1995. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," NBER Working Papers 5260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jeffrey I. Bernstein & M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1988. "Rates Of Return On Physical And R&D Capital And Structure Of The Production Process: Cross Section And Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-2), pages 1-54. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Emine Boz, 2006. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? An Informational Frictions Explanation of Emerging Markets Crises," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 19, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Emine Boz, 2007. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises," IMF Working Papers 07/223, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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