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Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano

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Author Info
Wilman Gómez
Carlos Esteban Posada ()

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Abstract

El período 1994-2001 correspondió al de un ciclo de la economía colombiana, especialmente intenso sobretodo en lo que se refiere a la magnitud de la depresión ocurrida entre 1998 y 2001. En el presente documento se describe la construcción y el uso de un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para evaluar los efectos de un impacto que, presumiblemente, dio origen al auge y a la posterior depresión de la economía: Un aumento transitorio, súbito e imprevisto del activo externo neto (gracias, supuestamente, a una caida de la tasa externa de interés). Tal "choque desató, según los resultados de las simulaciones descritas en este documento, primero, un auge, y después, una desaceleración. Con todo, la desaceleración predicha por el choque mencionado, así que en 1998 debió ocurrir un choque adicional, esta vez de magnitud negativa, capaz de transformar aquella en una depresión.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 285.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:285

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Related research
Keywords: Ciclo económico; modelo de equilibrio general dinámico; impulso o choque; respuestas cíclicas; auge; depresión; entradas y salidas de capital.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  3. Carlos Esteban Posada & Wilman Gómez, 2002. "Crecimiento Económico y Gasto Público: Un Modelo para el Caso Colombiano," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002218, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Cristina Arellano & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," NBER Working Papers 8880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Correia, I. & Rabelo, S. & Naves, J.C., 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," RCER Working Papers 382, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    Other versions:
  6. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Temporary and Permanent Components of Colombia's Output," Borradores de Economia 096, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  11. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:2:p:307-35 is not listed on IDEAS
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  13. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Franz Hamann, . "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Borradores de Economia 225, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  18. Franz A. Hamman & Alvaro Riascos, . "Ciclos Económicos en una Economía Pequeña y Abierta- Una Aplicación para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 089, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2002. "Knife-Edge Conditions And The Macrodynamics Of Small Open Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 307-335, April. [Downloadable!]
  20. Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2003. "External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 207-239, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Working Papers 8338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Juan Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2002. "Credit Cycles Redux," Macroeconomics 0210004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Cordoba, Juan & Ripoll, Marla, 2002. "Credit Cycles Redux," Working Papers 2002-07, Rice University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    • Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
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