IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ind/igiwpp/2019-026.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Correlated shocks, hysteresis, and the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from India

Author

Listed:
  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Gagan Goel

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

In an emerging market subject to frequent shocks output sacrifice from disinflation depends not only on the Phillips curve slope but also on shifts in demand and supply. Introducing shocks and correlations between shocks in a Kalman filter based estimation, the slope flattens, correlation between permanent output shocks (supply) and output gap (demand) shocks is negative and a new decomposition of output between trend and output gap shocks is obtained. The flat supply curve is robust to parameter changes, and business cycle turning points are tracked well, but the decomposition varies. More stable inflation expectation and rise in forward-looking behaviour increases volatility of trend growth and reduces the output gap. Inflation targeting had such effects in India. Estimated sacrifice ratio varies with the period and method, but it rises to 6.7 over 2011-17 if such hysteresis is included. Simultaneous equation estimation corroborates the results. In the estimation period, inflation targeting affected expectations but not inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal & Gagan Goel, 2019. "Correlated shocks, hysteresis, and the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-026, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2019-026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2019-026.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Okun, Arthur M, 1978. "Efficient Disinflationary Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 348-352, May.
    2. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
    3. Goyal, Ashima, 2011. "A general equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1392-1404, May.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Tobias Böing, 2014. "Sacrifice Ratios for Euro Area Countries: New Evidence on the Costs of Price Stability," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 47(4), pages 455-471, December.
    5. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Belke Ansgar, 2018. "Secular Stagnation, Unemployment Hysteresis and Monetary Policy in EMU: Scratches but Not Scars?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q III).
    8. James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," NBER Working Papers 23429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Chetan Ghate & Kenneth M. Kletzer (ed.), 2016. "Monetary Policy in India," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-81-322-2840-0, December.
    10. Taylor, John B, 1983. "Union Wage Settlements during a Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 981-993, December.
    11. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, May.
    12. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-427, October.
    13. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
    14. S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2013. "Sectoral effects of disinflation: Evidence from India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 77-87, March.
    15. Paul, Biru Paksha, 2009. "In search of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 479-488, September.
    16. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    17. Goyal, Ashima & Tripathi, Shruti, 2015. "Separating shocks from cyclicality in Indian aggregate supply," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 93-103.
    18. Walter Enders & Stan Hurn, 2007. "Identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks in a small open economy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(3), pages 411-429, July.
    19. Goyal, Ashima & Kumar, Abhishek, 2018. "Active monetary policy and the slowdown: Evidence from DSGE based Indian aggregate demand and supply," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 21-40.
    20. Ravindra H. Dholakia & Kadiyala Sri Virinchi, 2017. "How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India? Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 27-44, March.
    21. Virmani, Vineet, 2004. "Estimating Output Gap for the Indian Economy: Comparing Results from Unobserved-Components Models and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-04-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    22. Singh, B. Karan & Kanakaraj, A. & Sridevi, T.O., 2011. "Revisiting the empirical existence of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 247-258, June.
    23. Dholakia, Ravindra H., 2014. "Sacrifice Ratio and Cost of Inflation for the Indian Economy," IIMA Working Papers WP2014-02-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Estimating Sectoral Disinflation Cost in India: Some Structural VAR Evidence," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 23-46, December.
    2. Dinabandhu Sethi & Wing-Keung Wong & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Can a Disinflationary Policy Have a Differential Impact on Sectoral Output? A Look at Sacrifice Ratios in OECD and Non-OECD Countries," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 138-170, May.
    3. Ravindra H. Dholakia & Kadiyala Sri Virinchi, 2017. "How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India? Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 27-44, March.
    4. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.
    5. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2013. "Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: Money supply rule versus interest rate rule," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 77-100.
    6. Dholakia, Ravindra H. & Kadiyala Sri Virinchi, 2015. "How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India? Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-08-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    7. Juncal Cunado Eizaguirre & Fernando Pérez de Gracía Hidalgo, "undated". "Tasa de sacrificio en la UEM: Un análisis empírico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 70, FEDEA.
    8. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-427, October.
    9. Jean-Jacques Durand & Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Julien Licheron, 2008. "Sacrifice ratio dispersion within the Euro Zone: what can be learned about implementing a single monetary policy?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 601-621.
    10. Patrick F»Ve & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Disinflation Shocks in the Eurozone: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 289-323, March.
    11. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2020. "Monetary policy and financial frictions in a small open-economy model for Uganda," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1213-1241, September.
    12. Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Inflation-output trade-off: Old measures, new determinants?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. N. Johnson, Leroy, 2022. "Financial Frictions And Monetary Policy Shocks In Sierra Leone: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 9(2), pages 78-96, June.
    14. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Inflation Target Shocks and Monetary Policy Inertia in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(547), pages 1100-1124, September.
    15. Martin Stojanovikj & Goran Petrevski, 2024. "Inflation targeting and disinflation costs in Emerging Market economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 283-312, February.
    16. Ashima Goyal & Sritama Ray, 2022. "Exploring correlations between aggregate demand and supply shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    17. Hyeon‐seung Huh, 2002. "Estimating Asymmetric Output Cost of Lowering Inflation for Australia," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 600-616, January.
    18. Juncal Cunnado & Fernando PErez De Gracia, 2003. "Sacrifice Ratios: Some lessons from EMU countries, 1960-2001," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 327-337.
    19. Giamattei, Marcus, 2015. "Cold Turkey vs. Gradualism - Evidence on Disinflation Strategies from a Laboratory Experiment," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-67-15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    20. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sacrifice ratio; Phillips curve slope; correlated demand and supply shocks; hysteresis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2019-026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shamprasad M. Pujar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/igidrin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.