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The effect of monetary policy on the Swiss franc: an SVAR approach

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  • Dr. Christian Grisse

Abstract

This paper revisits the effects of monetary policy on the exchange rate, focusing on the Swiss franc. I estimate a structural VAR using Bayesian methods introduced by Baumeister and Hamilton (2015) and identify monetary policy shocks by exploiting the interest rate and stock price comovement they induce. Priors are based on the previous empirical literature, leaving the exchange rate response to monetary policy agnostically open. The results show that increases in Swiss short-term interest rates are associated with a nominal Swiss franc appreciation against the euro and the US dollar within the same week, with the Swiss franc remaining permanently stronger than prior to the interest rate shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Christian Grisse, 2020. "The effect of monetary policy on the Swiss franc: an SVAR approach," Working Papers 2020-02, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2020-02
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    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2020/working_paper_2020_02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2020. "Advances in Using Vector Autoregressions to Estimate Structural Magnitudes," NBER Working Papers 27014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Thomas Maag & Dr. Tanja Zehnder, 2020. "The impact of SNB monetary policy on the Swiss franc and longer-term interest rates," Working Papers 2020-01, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Advances in Structural Vector Autoregressions with Imperfect Identifying Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 14603, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Dr. Romain Baeriswyl & Dr. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Dr. Petra Gerlach & Dr. Jörn Tenhofen, 2021. "The dynamics of bank rates in a negative-rate environment - the Swiss case," Working Papers 2021-05, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Kugler, Peter, 2020. "The Short-Run Impact of Interest Rates on Exchange Rates: Results for the Swiss franc Against the Euro and US Dollar from Daily Data 2001-2011," Working papers 2020/01, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy shocks; exchange rates; stock-bond comovement; delayed overshooting; structural vector autoregression; informative priors; sign restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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