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Oil price uncertainty and the Canadian economy: Evidence from a VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, asymmetric BEKK model

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  • Rahman, Sajjadur
  • Serletis, Apostolos

Abstract

In this paper we build on recent work by Elder and Serletis (2010, forthcoming) and Rahman and Serletis (forthcoming) and investigate the relationship between oil price uncertainty and the level of economic activity, using quarterly Canadian data over the period from 1974:1 to 2010:1. In doing so, we use a bivariate VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, asymmetric BEKK model, as detailed in Engle and Kroner (1995), Grier et al. (2004), and Shields et al. (2005). We show that the conditional variance–covariance process underlying output growth and the change in the real price of oil exhibits significant non-diagonality and asymmetry. We also present evidence that increased uncertainty about the change in the real price of oil is associated with a lower average growth rate of real economic activity in Canada, consistent with the results in Elder and Serletis (2010, forthcoming) and Rahman and Serletis (forthcoming) for the United States and Elder and Serletis (2009) for Canada. Our results are robust to alternative measures of the price of oil, alternative measures of the level of economic activity, and alternative data frequencies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 603-610

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:2:p:603-610

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

Related research

Keywords: Crude oil; Volatility; Bivariate VARMA; GARCH-in-Mean model; Asymmetric BEKK model;

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Cited by:
  1. Magnani, Natalia & Vaona, Andrea, 2013. "Regional spillover effects of renewable energy generation in Italy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 663-671.
  2. Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher, 2013. "Oil price uncertainty, monetary policy and the macroeconomy: The Canadian perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-259.
  3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan & Poon, Wai Ching & Westerlund, Joakim, 2014. "Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 137-146.
  4. Wen, Xiaoqian & Guo, Yanfeng & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2014. "How do the stock prices of new energy and fossil fuel companies correlate? Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 63-75.
  5. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
  6. Olga Efimova & Apostolos Serletis, 2014. "Energy Markets Volatility Modelling using GARCH," Working Papers 2014-39, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 24 Feb 2014.

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