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The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling

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  • Ryan Kellogg

Abstract

Despite widespread application of real options theory in the literature, the extent to which firms actually delay irreversible investments following an increase in the uncertainty of their environment is not empirically well-known. This paper estimates firms’ responsiveness to changes in uncertainty using detailed data on oil well drilling in Texas and expectations of future oil price volatility derived from the NYMEX futures options market. Using a dynamic model of firms’ investment problem, I find that oil companies respond to changes in expected price volatility by adjusting their drilling activity by a magnitude consistent with the optimal response prescribed by theory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16541.

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Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16541

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  1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
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  10. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Martin Uribe & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real E¤ects of Volatility Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  16. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen Terry, 2013. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," CEP Discussion Papers dp1195, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  17. Ryan Kellogg, 2009. "Learning by Drilling: Inter-Firm Learning and Relationship Persistence in the Texas Oilpatch," NBER Working Papers 15060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Soojin Jo, 2012. "The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 12-40, Bank of Canada.
  2. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Nonlinearities In The Oil Price–Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 337-363, November.
  4. Ine Van Robays, 2012. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Impact of Oil Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3937, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Karl Pinno & Apostolos Serletis, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Industrial Production," Working Papers 2013-03, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
  6. Muehlenbachs, Lucija, 2012. "Testing for Avoidance of Environmental Obligations," Discussion Papers dp-12-12, Resources For the Future.
  7. Michael Plante & Nora Traum, 2012. "Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates," Caepr Working Papers 2012-002, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.

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