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Uncertainty and the Timing of Automobile Purchases

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  • Hassler, John

Abstract

Earlier studies have shown that lumpy investment models well characterize individual expenditures on durables, in particular automobiles. In this class of models, a higher level of uncertainty generally implies that the household should tolerate a larger imbalance between the actual stock of the durable and the target stock before adjusting it by buying and/or selling. Then, if the level of uncertainty increases, aggregate expenditures would temporarily fall. This hypothesis is tested by estimating an aggregate lumpy investment model on automobile expenditure data, using stock market volatility to proxy uncertainty. The result is that expenditures fall significantly as stock market volatility increases. Copyright 2001 by The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 103 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 351-66

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:103:y:2001:i:2:p:351-66

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Web page: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9442

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Cited by:
  1. Edward S. Knotek II & Shujaat Khan, 2011. "How do households respond to uncertainty shocks?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II.
  2. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "The Changing Macroeconomic Response to Stock Market Volatility Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3652, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Ruediger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2009. "Firm-Specific Productivity Risk over the Business Cycle: Facts and Aggregate Implications," 2009 Meeting Papers 869, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier & Durrmeyer, Isis & Février, Philippe, 2013. "The Effect of Public Policies on Consumers' Preferences: Lessons from the French Automobile Market," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 422, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  5. Ryan Kellogg, 2010. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," NBER Working Papers 16541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Giuseppe Bertola & Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri, 2005. "Uncertainty and Consumer Durables Adjustment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 973-1007.
  7. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.
  8. Marta Lachowska, 2013. "Expenditure, Confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks to Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 13-197, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

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