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Impact of Oil Prices on Oil Exporting Countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia

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  • Svetlana Aleksandrova

    (University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria)

Abstract

After a period of relative stability in mid- 2014, oil prices began to decrease, and this affected the economy of the oil exporting countries. The decrease in oil prices had an impact on the economy of oil exporting countries, exposing them to risk as a result of the reduced export revenues. The effects of the decrease in oil prices on the economy of oil exporting and oil importing countries is different. The paper studies the effects of decreasing oil prices on economic growth, exchange rate sustainability and fiscal stability of the oil exporting countries in Caucasus and Central Asia. The forecasts anticipate recovery of the oil prices in 2016 but the uncertainty of oil revenues continues to be a challenge for the economy of oil exporting countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Aleksandrova, 2016. "Impact of Oil Prices on Oil Exporting Countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 447-460, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nwe:eajour:y:2016:i:4:p:447-460
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ine Van Robays, 2012. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Impact of Oil Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3937, CESifo.
    6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/253, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Umar Muhammad Gummi & Yang Rong & Utiya Bello & Abdulhamid Sillah Umar & Asiya Mu'azu, 2021. "On the Analysis of Food and Oil Markets in Nigeria: What Prices Tell Us from Asymmetric and Partial Structural Change Modeling?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 52-64.
    3. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Barkat, Karim, 2020. "Short- and long-run asymmetric effect of oil prices and oil and gas revenues on the real GDP and economic diversification in oil-dependent economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Ding Chen & Umar Muhammad Gummi & Shan-Bing Lu & Asiya Mu'azu, 2020. "Modelling the impact of oil price fluctuations on food price in high and low-income oil exporting countries," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 66(10), pages 458-468.
    5. Katarzyna Czech & Ibrahim Niftiyev, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Oil-Dependent Countries’ Currencies: The Case of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, September.
    6. Babatunde Adekunle OKUNEYE & Peter Olugbenga OLUWO, 2023. "Crude Oil Price Fluctuations and Manufacturing Sector Performance in Nigeria (1981 - 2019)," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 2, pages 139-152.
    7. Gulmira Azretbergenova & Aziza Syzdykova, 2020. "The Dependence of the Kazakhstan Economy on the Oil Sector and the Importance of Export Diversification," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 157-163.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transmission mechanism; oil exporting countries; oil importing countries; competitiveness of non-oil sectors; oil price shock; exchange rate volatility; inflation rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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