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Does Modeling Jumps Help? A Comparison of Realized Volatility Models for Risk Prediction

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  • Yin Liao

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Abstract

Recent literature has focuses on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit of explicitly modeling jumps in this class of models for value at risk (VaR) prediction. Several popular realized volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting performances through a Monte carlo study and an analysis based on empirical data of eight Chinese stocks. The results suggest that careful modeling of jumps in realized volatility models can largely improve VaR prediction, especially for emerging markets where jumps play a stronger role than those in developed markets.

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File URL: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2012/262012.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2012-26.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-26

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