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Are the high-growth recovery periods over?

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  • Méximo Camacho
  • Gabriel Pérez Quirés
  • Hugo Rodréguez Mendizébal

Abstract

We present evidence about the loss of the so-called plucking effect, that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the plucking effect can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Barcelona Graduate School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 382.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:382

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Keywords: Business cycle characteristics; Great Moderation; High-growth recovery;

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References

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  1. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November.
  2. Ana Maria Herrero & Elena Pesavento, 2003. "The Decline in U.S. Output Volatility: Structural Changes and Inventory Investment," Emory Economics 0301, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
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Cited by:
  1. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2012. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  2. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.

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