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Predictive Models for Disaggregate Stock Market Volatility

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  • Chong, Terence Tai Leung
  • Lin, Shiyu

Abstract

This paper incorporates the macroeconomic determinants into the forecasting model of industry-level stock return volatility in order to detect whether different macroeconomic factors can forecast the volatility of various industries. To explain different fluctuation characteristics among industries, we identified a set of macroeconomic determinants to examine their effects. The Clark and West (2007) test is employed to verify whether the new forecasting models, which vary among industries based on the in-sample results, can have better predictions than the two benchmark models. Our results show that default return and default yield have significant impacts on stock return volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Lin, Shiyu, 2015. "Predictive Models for Disaggregate Stock Market Volatility," MPRA Paper 68460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:68460
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu Wei & Lan Bai & Kun Yang & Guiwu Wei, 2021. "Are industry‐level indicators more helpful to forecast industrial stock volatility? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 17-39, January.
    2. Zhang Wu & Terence Tai-Leung Chong, 2021. "Does the macroeconomy matter to market volatility? Evidence from US industries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2931-2962, December.
    3. Conrad, Christian & Glas, Alexander, 2018. "‘Déjà vol’ revisited: Survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables predict volatility in the cross-section of industry portfolios," Working Papers 0655, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industry level stock return volatility; Out-of-sample forecast; Granger Causality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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