Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Is it possible to discriminate between different switching regressions models? An empirical investigation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Lanouar Charfeddine

    ()
    (OEP - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée (UPEMLV))

  • Dominique Guegan

    ()
    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris 1 - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In this paper we study, using the sup LR test, the possibility of discrimination between two classes of models: the Markov switching models of Hamilton (1989) and the Threshold Auto-Regressive Models (TAR) of Lim and Tong (1980). This work is motivated by the fact that generally practicians use, in applications, switching models without any statistical justification. Using experiment simulations, we show that it is very difficult to discriminate between the MSAR and the SETAR models specially using large samples. This means that when the null hypothesis is rejected, it appears that different switching models are significant. Moreover, the results show that the power of the sup LR test is sensitive to the mean, the noise variance and the delay parameter. Then, we apply this methodology to two time series: the US GNP growth rate and the US/UK exchange rate. We shall retain retain a Markov switching process for the US GNP growth rate and the US/UK exchange rate (monthly data). For the US/UK exchange rate (quarterly data), we accept the null hypothesis of a random walk.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/36/83/58/PDF/charffedine_guegan_EMEF.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00368358.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2008
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published, Euro-Mediterranean Economics and Finance Review, 2008, 3, 4, 54-75
    Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00368358

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00368358
    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

    Related research

    Keywords: Switching Models; Sup LR test; Empirical power; Exchange rate;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Marine Carrasco & Liang Hu, 2004. "Optimal test for Markov switching," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 396, Econometric Society.
    2. René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
    3. Yin-wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," Working Papers 052005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
    6. Proietti Tommaso, 1998. "Characterizing Asymmetries in Business Cycles Using Smooth-Transition Structural Time-Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, October.
    7. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
    8. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
    9. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
    10. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
    11. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun.
    12. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    13. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
    14. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    16. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00368358. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.