IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/imx/journl/v14y2019i2p151-168.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Las correlaciones dinámicas de contagio financiero:Estados Unidos y América Latina

Author

Listed:
  • Domingo Rodríguez Benavides

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana Azcapotzalco, México)

  • Ignacio Perrotini Hernández

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México)

Abstract

El objetivo principal del trabajo es proveer evidencia de contagio financiero entre el mercado accionario más representativo de los Estados Unidos y los principales mercados accionarios de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile y México en el periodo de 2002 a 2009. Con este fin estimamos las correlaciones dinámicas condicionales a través del modelo DCC a partir de la modelación de los rendimientos diarios de estos mercados. Una vez estimado el DCC, exploramos la posibilidad de contagio financiero del mercado accionario de Estados Unidos a los de América Latina. Para explicar los cambios repentinos en las correlaciones dinámicas entre el mercado accionario de Estados Unidos y los de América Latina estimamos un modelo cambio de régimen Markoviano de acuerdo con lo sugerido por Boffelli y Urga (2016). El análisis estadístico de las correlaciones dinámicas revela que el contagio financiero tuvo lugar en estos países mucho antes de la quiebra de Lehman Brothers.

Suggested Citation

  • Domingo Rodríguez Benavides & Ignacio Perrotini Hernández, 2019. "Las correlaciones dinámicas de contagio financiero:Estados Unidos y América Latina," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(2), pages 151-168, Abril-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:14:y:2019:i:2:p:151-168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/316
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antoniou, Antonios & Koutmos, Gregory & Pericli, Andreas, 2005. "Index futures and positive feedback trading: evidence from major stock exchanges," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 219-238, March.
    2. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    4. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2009. "ContagT: GAUSS module to implement a pairwise bootstrap test for contagion," Statistical Software Components G00007, Boston College Department of Economics.
    5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas, 2016. "Dynamic spillover effects in futures markets: UK and US evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 406-418.
    6. Kazi, Irfan Akbar & Guesmi, Khaled & Kaabia, Olfa, 2011. "Contagion effect of financial crisis on OECD stock markets," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2008. "Scalar BEKK and indirect DCC," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 537-549.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
    9. Paulo Horta & Carlos Mendes & Isabel Vieira, 2008. "Contagion effects of the US Subprime Crisis on Developed Countries," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2008_08, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    11. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Ten Things You Should Know About DCC," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-12, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    12. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    13. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
    14. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    15. Ueda, Kozo, 2012. "Banking globalization and international business cycles: Cross-border chained credit contracts and financial accelerators," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 1-16.
    16. Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-46, January.
    17. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samitas, Aristeidis, 2011. "Equity market integration in emerging Balkan markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 296-307, September.
    18. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 717-732, October.
    19. Romero-Meza, Rafael & Bonilla, Claudio & Benedetti, Hugo & Serletis, Apostolos, 2015. "Nonlinearities and financial contagion in Latin American stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 653-656.
    20. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Ten Things You Should Know about the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Representation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, June.
    21. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena, 2006. "Credit risk transfer and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 89-111, January.
    22. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Lin, Min & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2017. "Stock market contagion during the global financial crisis: A multiscale approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 163-168.
    23. Pretorius, Anmar & de Beer, Jesse, 2004. "Contagion in Africa: South Africa and a troubled neighbour, Zimbabwe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 703-717, July.
    24. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    25. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    26. Agosin, Manuel R. & Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo, 1993. "La liberalización comercial en América Latina," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    27. Dooley, Michael & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Transmission of the U.S. subprime crisis to emerging markets: Evidence on the decoupling-recoupling hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1331-1349, December.
    28. Mollah, Sabur & Quoreshi, A.M.M. Shahiduzzaman & Zafirov, Goran, 2016. "Equity market contagion during global financial and Eurozone crises: Evidence from a dynamic correlation analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 151-167.
    29. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samitas, Aristeidis & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2011. "Financial crises and stock market contagion in a multivariate time-varying asymmetric framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 92-106, February.
    30. Fresoli, Diego E. & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "The uncertainty of conditional returns, volatilities and correlations in DCC models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 170-185.
    31. Polanco-Martínez, J.M. & Fernández-Macho, J. & Neumann, M.B. & Faria, S.H., 2018. "A pre-crisis vs. crisis analysis of peripheral EU stock markets by means of wavelet transform and a nonlinear causality test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1211-1227.
    32. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Padhi, Puja, 2012. "Emerging markets and financial crises: Regional, global or isolated shocks?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 24-38.
    33. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Causes and hazards of the euro area sovereign debt crisis: Pure and fundamentals-based contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 133-147.
    34. Hemche, Omar & Jawadi, Fredj & Maliki, Samir B. & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi, 2016. "On the study of contagion in the context of the subprime crisis: A dynamic conditional correlation–multivariate GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 292-299.
    35. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
    36. Collins, Daryl & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2003. "Contagion: a fear for African equity markets?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 285-297.
    37. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Hoti, Suhejla & Lieberman, Offer, 2008. "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Correlation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1554-1583, December.
    38. Mark T. Hon & Jack Strauss & Soo‐Keong Yong, 2004. "Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 95-114, March.
    39. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    40. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Roca, Eduardo & Al-Shayeb, Abdulrahman, 2014. "How integrated are real estate markets with the world market? Evidence from case-wise bootstrap analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 137-142.
    41. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oussama Tilfani & Paulo Ferreira & My Youssef El Boukfaoui, 2021. "Dynamic cross-correlation and dynamic contagion of stock markets: a sliding windows approach with the DCCA correlation coefficient," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1127-1156, March.
    2. Ana Escribano & Cristina Íñiguez, 2021. "The contagion phenomena of the Brexit process on main stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4462-4481, July.
    3. Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2016. "Financial Contagion in EFA Markets in Crisis Periods: A Multivariate GARCH Dynamic Conditional Correlation Framework," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 121-151, July-Dec.
    4. Neha Seth & Monica Sighania, 2017. "Financial market contagion: selective review of reviews," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 391-408, November.
    5. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2015. "Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 192-210.
    6. Ahmad, Wasim & Sehgal, Sanjay & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2013. "Eurozone crisis and BRIICKS stock markets: Contagion or market interdependence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 209-225.
    7. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2016. "International contagion through financial versus non-financial firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 143-163.
    8. Alexakis, Christos & Pappas, Vasileios, 2018. "Sectoral dynamics of financial contagion in Europe - The cases of the recent crises episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 222-239.
    9. Pappas, Vasileios & Ingham, Hilary & Izzeldin, Marwan & Steele, Gerry, 2016. "Will the crisis “tear us apart”? Evidence from the EU," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 346-360.
    10. Karanasos, Menelaos & Yfanti, Stavroula & Karoglou, Michail, 2016. "Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 332-349.
    11. Rajan Sruthi & Santhakumar Shijin, 2020. "Investigating liquidity constraints as a channel of contagion: a regime switching approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, December.
    12. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2016. "Contagion in International Stock and Currency Markets During Recent Crisis Episodes," Working papers 258, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    13. Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2014. "Modeling international stock market contagion using multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-25, December.
    14. Bello, Jaliyyah & Guo, Jiaqi & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2022. "Financial contagion effects of major crises in African stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Hemche, Omar & Jawadi, Fredj & Maliki, Samir B. & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi, 2016. "On the study of contagion in the context of the subprime crisis: A dynamic conditional correlation–multivariate GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 292-299.
    16. Wasim Ahmad & N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2014. "The Eurozone crisis and its contagion effects on the European stock markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(3), pages 325-352, July.
    17. Mollah, Sabur & Quoreshi, A.M.M. Shahiduzzaman & Zafirov, Goran, 2016. "Equity market contagion during global financial and Eurozone crises: Evidence from a dynamic correlation analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 151-167.
    18. Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2013. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation Analysis of Stock Market Contagion: Evidence from the 2007-2010 Financial Crises," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 637-661.
    19. Dua, Pami & Tuteja, Divya, 2016. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages across international stock and currency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 249-261.
    20. Castagneto-Gissey, G. & Nivorozhkin, E., 2016. "No contagion from Russia toward global equity markets after the 2014 international sanctions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 79-98.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagio financiero; Crisis subprime; correlaciones dinámicas condicionales; Modelos Markov-Switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:14:y:2019:i:2:p:151-168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ricardo Mendoza (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/index .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.