Advanced Search

Papers Articles Authors Institutions Data (FRED®)

Abstract

This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of commodity futures when the correlations of spot and futures returns are subject to multi-state regime shifts. An independent switching dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IS-DCC) which is free from the problems of path-dependency and recombining is applied to model multi-regime switching correlations. The results of hedging exercises indicate that state-dependent IS-DCC outperforms state-independent DCC GARCH and three-state IS-DCC exhibits superior hedging effectiveness, illustrating importance of modeling higher-state switching correlations for dynamic futures hedging.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCY-504BT0X-1/2/dce31c8b74a2f66a8a0ef65cd9042fde
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 2728-2741

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:11:p:2728-2741

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

Related research

Keywords: Correlation hedging Minimum variance hedge ratio GARCH model Markov regime switching Commodity futures;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
2. Alexander, C. & Barbosa, A., 2008. "Hedging index exchange traded funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 326-337, February.
3. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models and currency risk: some evidence from density forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 363-385, March.
   
   • Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models and Currency Risk: Some Evidence from Density Forecasts," Working Papers wp04-10, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre.
4. Sarno, Lucio & Giorgio Valente, 2002. "Modelling and Forecasting Stock Returns: Exploiting the Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 160, Royal Economic Society.
   
   • Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 345-376.
   • Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting Stock Returns: Exploiting the Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers," Working Papers wp04-11, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre.
5. Lafuente, Juan A. & Novales, Alfonso, 2003. "Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: Evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1053-1078, June.
   
   • Alfonso Novales & J.A. Lafuente, 2002. "Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0223, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
6. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September.
   
   • Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, EconWPA.
7. Olivier Ledoit & Pedro Santa-Clara & Michael Wolf, 2003. "Flexible Multivariate GARCH Modeling with an Application to International Stock Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 735-747, August.
8. Krishnan, C.N.V. & Petkova, Ralitsa & Ritchken, Peter, 2009. "Correlation risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-367, June.
9. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2008. "A Markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1970-1983, September.
10. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    
    • BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
11. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
    
    • Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    • Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
12. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
    
    • Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
13. Chris Brooks & Olan T. Henry & Gita Persand, 2002. "The Effect of Asymmetries on Optimal Hedge Ratios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 333-352, April.
14. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li, 2008. "Asymmetric effect of basis on dynamic futures hedging: Empirical evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 187-198, February.
15. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
16. Gagnon, Louis & Lypny, Gregory J. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1998. "Hedging foreign currency portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-220, September.
17. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
18. Hsiang-Tai Lee & Jonathan Yoder, 2007. "A bivariate Markov regime switching GARCH approach to estimate time varying minimum variance hedge ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 1253-1265.
    
    • Hsiang-Tai Lee & Jonathan Yoder, 2005. "A Bivariate Markov Regime Switching GARCH Approach to Estimate Time Varying Minimum Variance Hedge Ratios," Econometrics 0506009, EconWPA.
19. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    
    • Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
20. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
21. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
22. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-24, April-Jun.
23. Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2009. "Optimal futures hedging under jump switching dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 446-456, June.
24. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
25. Ederington, Louis H. & Salas, Jesus M., 2008. "Minimum variance hedging when spot price changes are partially predictable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 654-663, May.

Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

Cited by:

1. Lee, Hsiang-Tai & Tsang, Wei-Lun, 2011. "Cross hedging single stock with American Depositary Receipt and stock index futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 146-157, September.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:11:p:2728-2741

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

---

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.

Privacy Legal