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Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market

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Alfonso Novales
J.A. Lafuente

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Abstract

We provide an analytical discussion of the optimal hedge ratio under discrepancies between the futures market price and its theoretical valuation according to the cost-of-carry model. Assuming a geometric Brownian motion for spot prices, we model mispricing as a speci…c noise component in the dynamics of futures market prices. Empirical evidence on the model is provided for the Spanish stock index futures. Ex-ante simulations with actual data reveal that hedge ratios that take into account the estimated, time-varying, correlation between the common and specific disturbances, lead to using a lower number of futures contracts than under a systematic unit ratio, without generally losing hedging e¤ectiveness, while reducing transaction costs and capital requirements. Besides, the reduction in the number of contracts can be substantial over some periods. Finally, a meanvariance expected utility function suggests that the economic benefits from an optimal hedge are substantial.

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Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales in its series Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico with number 0223.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0223

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  1. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December. [Downloadable!]
  2. Chan, Kalok & Chan, K C & Karolyi, G Andrew, 1991. "Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 657-84. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. A. Craig MacKinlay, Krishna Ramaswamy, 1988. "Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 137-158. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
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  6. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December. [Downloadable!]
  7. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
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  1. Patrick McGlenchy & Paul Kofman, 2004. "Structurally Sound Dynamic Index Futures Hedging," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 80, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christos Floros & Dimitrios V. Vougas, 2004. "Hedge ratios in Greek stock index futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1125-1136, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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