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Time-Varying Volatility in Canadian and U.S. Stock Index and Index Futures Markets: A Multivariate Analysis

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  • Racine, M D
  • Ackert, Lucy F

Abstract

We use a multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity model (M-GARCH) to examine three stock indexes and their associated futures prices: the New York Stock Exchange Composite, S&P 500, and Toronto 35. The North American context is significant because markets in Canada and the United States share similar structures and regulatory environments. Our model allows examination of dependence in volatility as it captures time variation in volatility and cross-market influences. Estimated time variation in volatility is significant and the volatilities are highly positively correlated. Yet, we find that the correlation in North American index and futures markets has declined over time.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association in its journal Journal of Financial Research.

Volume (Year): 23 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (Summer)
Pages: 129-43

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:23:y:2000:i:2:p:129-43

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Web page: http://www.southwesternfinance.org/
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References

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  1. Akgiray, Vedat, 1989. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 55-80, January.
  2. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Persistence in Conditional Variances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 167-86, January.
  4. Lucy Ackert & Marie Racine, 1997. "The economics of conditional heteroskedasticity: Evidence from canadian and U.S. stock and futures markets," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(4), pages 371-385, December.
  5. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
  6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  7. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
  8. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
  9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Alfonso Novales & J.A. Lafuente, 2002. "Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0223, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
  2. Atilla Çifter & Alper Özün, 2007. "The Predictive Performance of Asymmetric Normal Mixture GARCH in Risk Management: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 1(1), pages 7-34.
  3. Constantinos Katrakilidis & Athanasios Koulakiotis, 2006. "The Impact of Stock Exchange Rules on Volatility and Error Transmission -- The Case of Frankfurt and Zurich Cross-Listed Equities," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 321-338, November.

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