IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurasi/v7y2017i3d10.1007_s40821-016-0056-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The application of technical trading rules developed from spot market prices on futures market prices using CAPM

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan Er

    (Akdeniz University)

  • Adnan Hushmat

    (Akdeniz University)

Abstract

Futures markets have seen a phenomenal success since their inception both in developed and developing countries during the last four decades. This success is attributable to the tremendous leverage the futures provide to market participants. This study contributes to the literature by analyzing a trading strategy which benefits from this leverage by using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and cost-of-carry relationship. We apply the technical trading rules developed from spot market prices, on futures market prices using a CAPM based hedge ratio. Historical daily prices of twenty stocks from each of the ten markets (five developed markets and five emerging markets) are used for the analysis. Popular technical indicators, along with artificial intelligence techniques like Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms, are used to generate buy and sell signals for each stock and for portfolios of stocks. The performance of the trading strategies is then calculated and compared. The results show that, although equal amounts invested in both spot and futures markets, the profit from the strategies applied on futures is considerably higher than that from the spot market in both developed and emerging markets. Moreover, the overall performance of the artificial intelligence strategies is far better than the traditional ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Er & Adnan Hushmat, 2017. "The application of technical trading rules developed from spot market prices on futures market prices using CAPM," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 313-353, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurasi:v:7:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40821-016-0056-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s40821-016-0056-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40821-016-0056-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40821-016-0056-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pradeep K. Yadav & Peter F. Pope, 1990. "Stock index futures arbitrage: International evidence," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(6), pages 573-603, December.
    2. Lafuente, Juan A. & Novales, Alfonso, 2003. "Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: Evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1053-1078, June.
    3. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-630, November.
    4. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    5. Philip Brown & Terry Walter, 2013. "The CAPM : Theoretical Validity, Empirical Intractability and Practical Applications," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 49, pages 44-50, January.
    6. Darren Butterworth & Phil Holmes, 2001. "The hedging effectiveness of stock index futures: evidence for the FTSE-100 and FTSE-mid250 indexes traded in the UK," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 57-68.
    7. Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Lin, Shinn-Juh & Su, Hsiang-Ju & Chang, Hsing-Hua, 2014. "Value investing and technical analysis in Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 14-36.
    8. Hui Qu & Xindan Li, 2014. "Building Technical Trading System with Genetic Programming: A New Method to Test the Efficiency of Chinese Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 301-311, March.
    9. Imad Moosa & Larry Li, 2011. "Technical and Fundamental Trading in the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence Based on Time-Series and Panel Data," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 23-31, January.
    10. Joshua Krausz & Sa-Young Lee & Kiseok Nam, 2009. "Profitability of Nonlinear Dynamics Under Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from Pacific Basin Stock Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 13-35, July.
    11. Nivine Richie & Robert T. Daigler & Kimberly C. Gleason, 2008. "The limits to stock index arbitrage: Examining S&P 500 futures and SPDRS," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(12), pages 1182-1205, December.
    12. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 289-306.
    13. M. A. H. dempster & C. M. Jones, 2001. "A real-time adaptive trading system using genetic programming," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 397-413.
    14. Stanley Block & Dan French, 2002. "The effect of portfolio weighting on investment performance evaluation: The case of actively managed mutual funds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 16-30, March.
    15. Stephen Figlewski, 1985. "Hedging with stock index futures: Theory and application in a new market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 183-199, June.
    16. Blennerhassett, Michael & Bowman, Robert G., 1998. "A change in market microstructure: the switch to electronic screen trading on the New Zealand stock exchange," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 261-276, December.
    17. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
    18. Cornell, Bradford & French, Kenneth R, 1983. "Taxes and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 675-694, June.
    19. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    20. A. Craig MacKinlay, Krishna Ramaswamy, 1988. "Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 137-158.
    21. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    22. Yiuman Tse & Tatyana V. Zabotina, 2001. "Transaction Costs and Market Quality: Open Outcry Versus Electronic Trading," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 713-735, August.
    23. Wang, Ju-Jie & Wang, Jian-Zhou & Zhang, Zhe-George & Guo, Shu-Po, 2012. "Stock index forecasting based on a hybrid model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 758-766.
    24. Allen, Franklin & Karjalainen, Risto, 1999. "Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 245-271, February.
    25. Wenling Yang & David E. Allen, 2005. "Multivariate GARCH hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness in Australian futures markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 45(2), pages 301-321, July.
    26. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2573-2586, November.
    27. Bradford Cornell & Kenneth R. French, 1983. "The pricing of stock index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(1), pages 1-14, March.
    28. Frino, Alex & McInish, Thomas H. & Toner, Martin, 1998. "The liquidity of automated exchanges: new evidence from German Bund futures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 225-241, December.
    29. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    30. Craig Pirrong, 1996. "Market liquidity and depth on computerized and open outcry trading systems: A comparison of DTB and LIFFE bund contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 519-543, August.
    31. Lukas Menkhoff & Ulrich Schmidt, 2005. "The use of trading strategies by fund managers: some first survey evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(15), pages 1719-1730.
    32. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1995. "The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 257-284, July.
    33. Figlewski, Stephen, 1984. "Hedging Performance and Basis Risk in Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 657-669, July.
    34. Cumming, Douglas & Johan, Sofia & Li, Dan, 2011. "Exchange trading rules and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 651-671, March.
    35. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Galpin, Neal, 2011. "The Global Rise of the Value-Weighted Portfolio," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 737-756, June.
    36. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Loureiro, Sandra Maria Correia & Guerreiro, João & Tussyadiah, Iis, 2021. "Artificial intelligence in business: State of the art and future research agenda," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 911-926.
    2. Roi D. Taussig & Dror Tobi & Moti Zwilling, 2019. "The importance of timing in estimating beta," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(1), pages 61-70, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    3. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Gurmeet Singh, 2017. "Estimating Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the NSE Index Futures," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(2), pages 108-131, December.
    5. Frömmel, Michael & Lampaert, Kevin, 2016. "Does frequency matter for intraday technical trading?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 177-183.
    6. Jying‐Nan Wang & Hung‐Chun Liu & Jiangze Du & Yuan‐Teng Hsu, 2019. "Economic benefits of technical analysis in portfolio management: Evidence from global stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 890-902, April.
    7. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    8. Tan, Siow-Hooi & Lai, Ming-Ming & Tey, Eng-Xin & Chong, Lee-Lee, 2020. "Testing the performance of technical analysis and sentiment-TAR trading rules in the Malaysian stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert & Gebka, Bartosz, 2014. "Does high frequency trading affect technical analysis and market efficiency? And if so, how?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 131-157.
    10. Isakov, Dusan & Marti, Didier, 2011. "Technical Analysis with a Long-Term Perspective: Trading Strategies and Market Timing Ability," FSES Working Papers 421, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    11. Alhashel, Bader S. & Almudhaf, Fahad W. & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2018. "Can technical analysis generate superior returns in securitized property markets? Evidence from East Asia markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 92-108.
    12. Pedro Godinho, 2012. "Can abnormal returns be earned on bandwidth-bounded currencies? Evidence from a genetic algorithm," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, March.
    13. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Short-term predictability of equity returns along two style dimensions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 675-685.
    14. Cristiana Tudor & Andrei Anghel, 2021. "The Financialization of Crude Oil Markets and Its Impact on Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Predictive Ability and Performance of Technical Trading Strategies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, July.
    15. Paolo Mazza & Mikael Petitjean, 2019. "Testing the effect of technical analysis on market quality and order book dynamics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(18), pages 1947-1976, April.
    16. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    17. Hung, Chiayu & Lai, Hung-Neng, 2022. "Information asymmetry and the profitability of technical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    19. Panayiotis Andreou & Yiannos Pierides, 2008. "Empirical investigation of stock index futures market efficiency: the case of the Athens Derivatives Exchange," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 211-223.
    20. Coleman, Les, 2014. "Why finance theory fails to survive contact with the real world: A fund manager perspective," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 226-236.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Futures; CAPM; Technical indicators; Artificial intelligence; Emerging markets; Neural networks; Genetic programming;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurasi:v:7:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40821-016-0056-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.