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Profitability of Nonlinear Dynamics Under Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from Pacific Basin Stock Markets

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  • Joshua Krausz
  • Sa-Young Lee
  • Kiseok Nam

Abstract

This paper explores a possible link between an asymmetric dynamic process of stock returns and profitable technical trading rules. Using Pacific Basin stock market indexes, we show that the dynamic process of daily index returns is better characterized by nonlinearity arising from an asymmetric reverting property, and that the asymmetric reverting property of stock returns is exploitable in generating profitable buy and sell signals for technical trading rules. We show that the positive (negative) returns from buy (sell) signals are a consequence of trading rules that exploit the asymmetric dynamics of stock returns that revolve around positive (negative) unconditional mean returns under prior positive (negative) return patterns. Our results corroborate the arguments for the usefulness of technical analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Krausz & Sa-Young Lee & Kiseok Nam, 2009. "Profitability of Nonlinear Dynamics Under Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from Pacific Basin Stock Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 13-35, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:45:y:2009:i:4:p:13-35
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yan-Ting Lin & Shang-Chi Gong & Sou-Shan Wu & Tsung-Pei Lee, 2012. "E/P Mean Reversion-Based Strategies for Investment Practice: Evidence from the Taiwan Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 117-131, January.
    2. Hakan Er & Adnan Hushmat, 2017. "The application of technical trading rules developed from spot market prices on futures market prices using CAPM," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 313-353, December.
    3. Tsung-Hsun Lu & Yung-Ming Shiu, 2012. "Tests for Two-Day Candlestick Patterns in the Emerging Equity Market of Taiwan," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 41-57, January.

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