Can abnormal returns be earned on bandwidth-bounded currencies? Evidence from a genetic algorithm
AbstractMost of the studies about the Foreign Exchange market (Forex) analyse the behaviour of currencies that are allowed to float freely (or almost freely), but some currencies are still bounded by bandwidths (either disclosed or undisclosed). In this paper, I try to find out whether two bandwidth-bounded currencies, the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) and the Singapore dollar (SGD), present opportunities for abnormal returns. I consider a set of trading rules, and I use a genetic algorithm to optimise both the subset of rules to be used and their parameters, using real market data. I use four pairs of currencies, two of them involving currencies bounded by bandwidths and two others involving only free-floating currencies. I compare the results obtained for the different pairs, both in terms of profitability and in terms of the types of the rules that are used. Evidence of profitability is more consistent for the only pair including a bandwidth bounded currency without a narrow price band, the USD/SGD. Trend reversing rules are preferred for this currency pair, while the preferred type of rule seems to depend on the pair of currencies when free-floating currencies are considered. In the case of the SD/HKD, the small number of price changes, as well as the price stability (possibly consequences of a narrow price band) do not allow me to obtain conclusive results.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Economic Issues in its journal Economic Issues.
Volume (Year): 17 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dittmar, Robert & Neely, Christopher J & Weller, Paul, 1996.
"Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 405-426, December.
- Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Robert Dittmar, 1997. "Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? a genetic programming approach," Working Papers 1996-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- LeBaron, B., 1996.
"Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreing Exchange Intervention,"
9445r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October.
- Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA.
- Blake LeBaron, . "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," Working papers _002, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
- Blake LeBaron, 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 5505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cheol-Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, 09.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007.
"The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen FakultÃ¤t der Leibniz UniversitÃ¤t Hannover dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Paul Weller & Christopher Neely, 1999.
"Intraday Technical Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market,"
wp99-02, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.
- Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2001. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 1999-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
- Anthony Brabazon & Michael O’Neill, 2004. "Evolving technical trading rules for spot foreign-exchange markets using grammatical evolution," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 311-327, October.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan G & White, Halbert, 1998.
"Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
- Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group.
- Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Joshua M. Ulrich, 2007.
"The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market,"
2006-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A. & Ulrich, Joshua M., 2009. "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(02), pages 467-488, April.
- M. A. H. dempster & C. M. Jones, 2001. "A real-time adaptive trading system using genetic programming," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 397-413.
- Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dan Wheatley).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.